mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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AI just cr@pped the bed and pushed both 2/12 and 2/14 off the coast thanks to the cold. Wouldn't worry about that until ensembles start doing it since that's really all it is at this range. But cold probably won't be our problem after next week.
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In addition to maintaining the SSW on the 6z run, now at 300hrs, Gfs has a 2nd hit to what's left of the vortex at the end of its run. Follow-up hits like this are classic to consequential SSW events. Difficult not to get excited for the next 6, maybe even 8, weeks.
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If I was ever going to report a post, this would be the one.
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Interestingly, 6z Gfs has the SSW around 300 hrs as prior runs with a second hit now showing up at the end of the run. That's some classic stuff right there.
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Not staying up for the Euro. No way it could come close the Gfs short of a miracle.
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SER destroyed in 1 run.
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Snow derecho
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5h map looks like an arrow.
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Since when are you the only one entitled to complain about model runs? Lol
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500mb low centered over Hudson Bay. Same place it was sitting in 2/79, and we know what happened on the 17th that month.
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Dude, that's what I said last night. So long as we're on the correct side of the boundary.
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Gfs even features @ravensrule's favorite 500mb pattern!
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Lol round 2 incoming on Gfs at 277hrs
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https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025020200&fh=270&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=snku_acc-imp&m=gfs
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Spanking in VA/MD and meh comparatively up here at 264hrs Gfs.
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They're over a foot on the Gfs by 218hrs. And the ensembles have been crushing them for days.
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Gfs loading up again at 237hrs. Just want a direct hit.
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New England is the place to be with this pattern. They're going to get absolutely crushed.
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Canadian, though improved, is absolutely maddening looking at the snowfall map. Arghhh!
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AI was not too far off I don't believe.
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Icon makes next weekend pretty miserable too.
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AI has snow in central VA and DC/BWI on the 10th that gets lighter once in PA. Probably a light to moderate event. Cold air keeps it south.
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Lots of fun things happen on models past 300hrs.
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It starts as snow until the low cuts off and gets all wound up drawing warm air off the SER. Southern areas get the precip before the warm air gets sucked in and it becomes "extra tropical". Lol not really
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2nd one. All that warm air from the SER comes surging onshore.
