mitchnick

0z run of the Cfs2 weeklies shows a cooler 2-3 weeks than previous runs, but then starts to warm toward the end of the month of December. The Cfs2 is definitely on board with a strong pass thru the warm phases and has been for days, so I assume it represents your thinking. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=us&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2024111500&fh=504 But the monthly forecast shows a normal to BN temps in the MA & NE for January. My guess is it holds a fairly strong wave into the cooler phases to support the cooler January.

I wouldn't get worried at this point. First of all, there are multiple variations from the Euro suite as well as the Gfs suite. They, along with other modeling, are at the link below. You can see the various different forecasts from the same suite not to mention that forecast Chuck posted was at the end of the run with low skill. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

It wasn'tout yet when I posted. +1-2 to -1-2 across the country at the end of the run. Edit: Added surface and 850 anomaly maps. Looks like a front moving down from the midwest at the end of the run too.

End of the Gefs and Geps take us to the morning of 11/30 with no real furnace in sight, US or in Canada, but Geps is surprisingly colder.

I haven't read JB in years, so I was unaware of his JMA laments. Notwithstanding, I routinely see the other suites follow it. I agree with you on the CFS and BoM fwiw...they suk. But as you and I both mentioned, it would be nice if the JMA ensembles went out further.

Gee thanks. And to think I figured you'd respond with something disingenuous.

Idk. I always look at the JMA MJO forecast as I find it's usually closer in the end to being correct than either the Gfs or Euro suites. Fwiw, JMA looks very similar to Euro vs Gfs. PRoblem with the JMA is the plots only have the ensemble JMA out 10 days vs the longer range ensembles of the Euro and Gfs suites. So there's no much of a clue for December attm. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

If we're ever going to get an official Niña, Gfs and Cfs2 say the cool down starts now. We'll see.

I meant to add this yesterday. Euro Weeklies even bolder with placing troughing over or near Japan past week 1. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202411130000&projection=opencharts_eastern_asia&valid_time=202411250000 I mention it because if close to accurate, it often translates into a trough over the eastern US down the road, it brings in cooler air to help with cooling Eastern Pac sea surface temps already in decline , and it fires up @snowman19. lol

Can I join in with your reindeer games?

Fwiw, lots of cooling in worldwide ocean SSTA's including a few places where it counts too.

PDO still rising

I won't make a call on NE because I have no business in doing that (lol), but I'm really torn for the MA between a best case of +1 and a worst case of +4. I say +1 because Eps weeklies have been coming down to a +.5-+1C of late. Typically, we'd see a legit trend to warmer if the warmer was in store. Otoh, it might just be that the weeklies are signaling a slightly AN surrounded by a solid AN. The counter to that is that the GEFS, EPS & GEPS are all pointing to a N to slightly BN to start to December. Monthly seasonal forecasts haven't changed much with the Cfs either. In the end, the safe bet imho would be +2-4F in the MA, with a +1-2 still on the table for some areas.

Last question because it's obvious I'm beating a dead horse. Is +10 for the winter your forecast?

Don't look now @snowman19, but Webb is calling for an east based Nina. Remember, I'm just the messenger! Lol https://x.com/webberweather/status/1856461613316067383?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1856461613316067383|twgr^ec37157f90ea148700875b65bc98bd9fe3904e50|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fwebberweather%2Fstatus%2F1856461613316067383%3Fs%3D4626t%3DJYOHM881b6groqc0-RqtxA

I understand that completely, but it's just another way odds favor a warmer than normal winter in the east. How many times and ways does it have to be said since no one in this forum is arguing otherwise? Moreover, unless you or anyone else can use one of these "tools" to predict with accuracy exact temps, snowfall, and/or precip in a particular location, I'm serious when I ask...what's the use all things considered? Consensus seasonal modeling has pretty much been months ahead of anybody when you think about it. Going against consensus and being right is what has true value imho.

I guess we'll see whether it's the Gefs or Eps that's right. It'll be nice to know which one has the hot hand for future reference.

I don't care about why it's been warm. Lol The internet is filled with "me firsts" trying to come up with new theories/explanations on warming so they can join the 10,000 jumping off the GW Brooklyn Bridge. Whether they are right or wrong, the past is dead. I'm looking forward to this winter and trying to identify opportunities in the east in accordance with the thread title "2024-2025 La Nina."

Imho, last night's run of the Eps for the east/south look more Niño than flaming Niña depicted on monthly modeling. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=epsens&p=sfct_anom-p105090-imp&rh=2024111200&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

That post from sad-faced Makiko is over a month old. Looks to me like the sun will peak this month. https://solen.info/solar/index.html

I should have added, both GEFS & GEPS are showing a trough over Japan. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2024111206&fh=384 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2024111200&fh=384

Don't know if anyone noticed, but Euro Weeklies forecast has been hitting hard on weakening then removing the ridge over Japan starting early December. Should help some with PDO and ridge placement over Alaska. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202411110000&projection=opencharts_eastern_asia&valid_time=202411180000

Oisst is even better. Coral Reefs has been notoriously a tick or 2 warmer over the years.

I'm not Gawx, but ahem...

.4" last night fwiw