mitchnick

I meant to add this yesterday. Euro Weeklies even bolder with placing troughing over or near Japan past week 1. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202411130000&projection=opencharts_eastern_asia&valid_time=202411250000 I mention it because if close to accurate, it often translates into a trough over the eastern US down the road, it brings in cooler air to help with cooling Eastern Pac sea surface temps already in decline , and it fires up @snowman19. lol

Can I join in with your reindeer games?

Fwiw, lots of cooling in worldwide ocean SSTA's including a few places where it counts too.

PDO still rising

I won't make a call on NE because I have no business in doing that (lol), but I'm really torn for the MA between a best case of +1 and a worst case of +4. I say +1 because Eps weeklies have been coming down to a +.5-+1C of late. Typically, we'd see a legit trend to warmer if the warmer was in store. Otoh, it might just be that the weeklies are signaling a slightly AN surrounded by a solid AN. The counter to that is that the GEFS, EPS & GEPS are all pointing to a N to slightly BN to start to December. Monthly seasonal forecasts haven't changed much with the Cfs either. In the end, the safe bet imho would be +2-4F in the MA, with a +1-2 still on the table for some areas.

Last question because it's obvious I'm beating a dead horse. Is +10 for the winter your forecast?

Don't look now @snowman19, but Webb is calling for an east based Nina. Remember, I'm just the messenger! Lol https://x.com/webberweather/status/1856461613316067383?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1856461613316067383|twgr^ec37157f90ea148700875b65bc98bd9fe3904e50|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fwebberweather%2Fstatus%2F1856461613316067383%3Fs%3D4626t%3DJYOHM881b6groqc0-RqtxA

I understand that completely, but it's just another way odds favor a warmer than normal winter in the east. How many times and ways does it have to be said since no one in this forum is arguing otherwise? Moreover, unless you or anyone else can use one of these "tools" to predict with accuracy exact temps, snowfall, and/or precip in a particular location, I'm serious when I ask...what's the use all things considered? Consensus seasonal modeling has pretty much been months ahead of anybody when you think about it. Going against consensus and being right is what has true value imho.

I guess we'll see whether it's the Gefs or Eps that's right. It'll be nice to know which one has the hot hand for future reference.

I don't care about why it's been warm. Lol The internet is filled with "me firsts" trying to come up with new theories/explanations on warming so they can join the 10,000 jumping off the GW Brooklyn Bridge. Whether they are right or wrong, the past is dead. I'm looking forward to this winter and trying to identify opportunities in the east in accordance with the thread title "2024-2025 La Nina."

Imho, last night's run of the Eps for the east/south look more Niño than flaming Niña depicted on monthly modeling. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=epsens&p=sfct_anom-p105090-imp&rh=2024111200&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

That post from sad-faced Makiko is over a month old. Looks to me like the sun will peak this month. https://solen.info/solar/index.html

I should have added, both GEFS & GEPS are showing a trough over Japan. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2024111206&fh=384 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2024111200&fh=384

Don't know if anyone noticed, but Euro Weeklies forecast has been hitting hard on weakening then removing the ridge over Japan starting early December. Should help some with PDO and ridge placement over Alaska. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202411110000&projection=opencharts_eastern_asia&valid_time=202411180000

Oisst is even better. Coral Reefs has been notoriously a tick or 2 warmer over the years.

I'm not Gawx, but ahem...

.4" last night fwiw

You didn't get the memo Larry? South of NE, we only post positive winter signs! Lol

There may be some future rising of the PDO if these SSTA maps are reasonably accurate. Top map is current SSTA and bottom map is changes of SSTA the last 7 days that's showing a decent hit to Pacific warm pool.

First time PDO has been <2 in a while.

1am reading down to 28 at York AP before temps started rising thanks to clouds.

I posted a month or so ago (too lazy to find it) that December would torch and I felt mby wouldn't get legit snow chances until the 1/15-2/25 period. I'll stick with that for now with the only caveat that 6-week period may need future adjustment in the future back a week or 2 to start in early January, but only if N America is able to cool fast enough from December.

It's been out for 2 days on TT. Seems like, at least at this point, all seasonal forecasts show the Dec-Feb period average in the +1-2C range for the east. The question now is whether that's underdone or overdone. Let me get back to you on that one!

Looks like you'll need to microwave the rats instead.

Lol. I was still celebrating yesterday and wasn't looking at models.