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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    I saw 2 in my wife's garden over the weekend.
  2. mitchnick
    6z Nams a lot wetter than globals here and for Bubbs.
  3. mitchnick
    This is the link to model verification scores at 500mb from 120 hours out. It doesn't help with precise precip or temp forecasts. Unfortunately, the link hasn't been updated for some reason unknown to me. Keep checking back as eventually it will be. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/acc_31days/
  4. mitchnick
    A September 15th 10-day forecast may be relevant to the coming winter when the original poster conditioned it on 2 levels? OK
  5. mitchnick
    Niña falls are notoriously dry without tropical activity, so expect more of the same if the tropics remain underwhelming.
  6. mitchnick
    Yep. 12z went with globals. 6z Nam was around 2" out your way. Lol
  7. mitchnick
    The mesos are wetter than the globals if that means anything.
  8. mitchnick
    Beautiful 65 degrees, cloudy, and dreams of wet snow changing to rain in Hanover.
  9. mitchnick
    He used the word "may" on 2 different levels. It was a useless post by Noll. Why even repost this?
  10. mitchnick
    6z Euro went south. What the heck has happened to the models? 3-5 day forecasts are just useless anymore.
  11. mitchnick
    Sun "may" have finally peaked looking at everything at this link. https://solen.info/solar/index.html
  12. mitchnick
    Max was 80.1. On another note, why the NWS is adding tenths of degrees now vs. never before smells of tacking on warmth to make it look warmer when compared to historical numbers. People wouldn't really do that, now would they?
  13. mitchnick
    Great call from 4-5 hours out. Lol https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KDUJ.html
  14. mitchnick
    Where's that?
  15. mitchnick
    Great omen on This Old House rerun this morning. Original date of airing was 2/15/03!
  16. mitchnick
    This looks familiar...oh yeah, all the Atlantic hurricane forecasts from 6 months ago.
  17. mitchnick
    Honestly, I haven't been looking at much modeling before last night. I don't know what ensembles were showing before the 0z run, but I can say they're all on board with an 1"+ event for us. Heaviest still to the south of us.
  18. mitchnick
    18z Icon coming around to a decent event on days 4-5. 0z not out completely yet.
  19. mitchnick
    Where's your gratuitous emoji? Lol
  20. mitchnick
    Now this deserves a crap emoji.
  21. mitchnick
    Heading back this morning a day early from Southern Shores. Finally feels like summer but too late for the pool. The sun being lower in the sky, the trees just barely blocked hitting the pool and warming it. Oh well, no complaints here. Beautiful fall weather all week, more like a typical Hanover mid-late September.
  22. mitchnick
    First of all, it's the JMA's first look at the winter, so nobody should take it too seriously. And like I said, the JMA's forecast from last year wasn't so hot. That said, the warm waters around Japan have got to moderate at some point, and a persistent trough at 500mb this winter could be the starting point. Who knows.
  23. mitchnick
    Agreed. But if I'm seeing it correctly, it looks to have a trough over Japan which usually corresponds to a trough in the east. But the JMA did have a canonical Niño trough in the east last year and we know how that turned out.
  24. mitchnick
    Half, or so, is likely due to lowering sun angle and cool weather. I sure as heck don't feel like coming home and mowing...oh the humanity.
  25. mitchnick
    I wonder if the film was a little longer, it would have turned to sleet/zr?
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