mitchnick

18z Icon coming around to a decent event on days 4-5. 0z not out completely yet.

Where's your gratuitous emoji? Lol

Now this deserves a crap emoji.

Heading back this morning a day early from Southern Shores. Finally feels like summer but too late for the pool. The sun being lower in the sky, the trees just barely blocked hitting the pool and warming it. Oh well, no complaints here. Beautiful fall weather all week, more like a typical Hanover mid-late September.

First of all, it's the JMA's first look at the winter, so nobody should take it too seriously. And like I said, the JMA's forecast from last year wasn't so hot. That said, the warm waters around Japan have got to moderate at some point, and a persistent trough at 500mb this winter could be the starting point. Who knows.

Agreed. But if I'm seeing it correctly, it looks to have a trough over Japan which usually corresponds to a trough in the east. But the JMA did have a canonical Niño trough in the east last year and we know how that turned out.

Half, or so, is likely due to lowering sun angle and cool weather. I sure as heck don't feel like coming home and mowing...oh the humanity.

I wonder if the film was a little longer, it would have turned to sleet/zr?

Don't think it was posted. Updated JMA Dec-Feb. https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/7mE/map1/pztmap.php Edit: A little AN 850 temps in the east. VERBATIM, not a winter killer.

Euro, Canadian and Gfs now showing hope next week with tropical scraps.

Cfs2 says just be patient...for November.

Been many a year that Hudson Bay has seen such cooling this time of year fwiw. Surprisingly, Coral Reef and Oisst agree on it too. Too early to say for sure, but it does suggest a cool to cold Canada this winter reflected on the Cansips and Cfs2 may be in the works.

I don't think anybody is saying it's a perfect match, just that there are enough similarities to put it in the mix.

Well, I was comparing Noll's map and the TT map verbatim. But the TT map has us in the .5-1C category for Dec and Jan, which ain't bad even if it is a little low.

Odd, temps don't look that bad on Tropical Tidbits. This link starts on December: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nmme&region=us&pkg=T2ma_nmme&runtime=2024090800&fh=3 P.s.: Noll map is for Jan-March. NMME Feb and March are more AN than Dec and Jan.

I banned myself from reading NE posts by the time Christmas rolled around that year. The MA had a decent clipper around 12/5 though. I remember JB's infamous line:"it's a clipper, it's a clipper, and now it's a flipper," or something like that, warning the pattern was turning to cr@p after it.

Lol. Although I never had a minimum charge, every lawyer I knew had a minimum charge, usually 15 minutes, when paid on an hourly rate. As a result the already crazy rates amounted to false advertising because if the had 4 separate tasks during the day at various times that only amounted to 15 minutes in total, they'd end of charging for 1 hour (4 x 15 minutes). So anyone reading this needs to clarify with their lawyer if paid on an hourly rate, they need to state in the employment contract that the lawyer gets paid for work on any day for the total time actually spent unless the total time for that day is less than the minimum charge.

I used to miss living there some, but Hanover has everything I need without the traffic and with more snow 95% of the time. The commute was the killer for me, even though it was only 3 days a week. Hats off to people who live in Hanover area that do it, and I know there are some. But after 37-38 years of a 5-10 commute to work, 75-90 minutes was maddening to this oldster. Otoh, had we not moved, I'm sure I'd a kept working. I know a lot of lawyers who go p/t once over 60 and still do ok...the crooks!!!

Agree next 7 days are dry, but the original Voyager post had the entire 384 hrs. run. Niña September's are usually drier than normal if memory serves, so I'm not saying it'll end up with AN precip. All the ensembles ARE dry thru day 7, but beyond 7 days is anyone's guess and ensembles are "probably" closer to reality than ops is what I was getting at. Over 39 years, my wife has urged me to be brief in my statements...e.g. Just shut up already!

Cfs2 is now advertising September will end with BN temps for much of PA and MA.

Eps, Gefs, and Geps all have us in the .5"-1" ranges.

You beat York airport by 4. That's impressive. Congrats.

Hanover looks to be under some heavy returns. Just when the grass was turning a nice brown! Rainer here in Southern Shores, but back edge should be thru by 2. After that, it's near identical weather to Hanover the rest of the week, less 3 or 4 degrees.

Today’s Cfs2 says Raindance is onto something. Surface: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html 850: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/usT850e3Mon.html