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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    This is different. Pivotal has the Ukie ensembles. My experience of watching them has been they are more conservative than the other ensembles until within 24-36 hours of the event. Yet, the 6z run just came in with the attached 24hr snowfall for next Sunday, by far the most of any of the ensembles. Looks like we have a few days of tracking if nothing else.
  2. mitchnick
    6z AI not buying the cold scenario.
  3. mitchnick
    6z 144hrs 850's Euro top and Eps bottom. Plenty of cold to the north and operational not an outlier considering the Eps.
  4. mitchnick
    That is getting soooo close to good. Plenty of time too for a meaningful trend...assuming it wants to keep trending.
  5. mitchnick
    That High Pressure north of Wisconsin is pressing east too and probably strengthening with that trough to the north seen in the far right, upper corner.
  6. mitchnick
    Surprisingly, surface temps past day 10 aren't as warm as that map would suggest fwiw.
  7. mitchnick
    Or a cold December.
  8. mitchnick
    He posted in the La Nina thread not too many days ago.
  9. mitchnick
    The fact is the atmosphere is in a Niña background state despite the weak Niña sea surface temps. Under sea temp anomalies are at -5C. Add to that currently a strong easterly wind burst (typical Nina) in a typically crummy Niña month of February, and I am not surprised to see the SER holding on. Modeling just jumped the gun wiping it out. We'll just have to wait to see if and when a better pattern returns. It should, but nothing is guaranteed.
  10. mitchnick
    Tough hobby, ain't it.
  11. mitchnick
    Ensembles hot off the presses. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_mjo_family_index?base_time=202501250000 I would add that some believe Gefs are better for MJO, but nothing's in stone on that.
  12. mitchnick
    Nah, nobody cares what happens at the South Pole.
  13. mitchnick
    Ugliest on the Geps and it was suppressed at 0z with decent BN temps vs AN at 12z. Sometimes I just want to shake the mainframes on which the ensembles run until it lights up with the word "tilt."
  14. mitchnick
    Looks like the Gefs idea from last night on the more persistent SER has prevailed over the Eps and Geps, at least at 12z.
  15. mitchnick
    My wife and I went down to Luray Caverns 2 Augusts ago on our way to Williamsburg. She had never been and always wanted to go and I hadn't been there since 3/77. It was much better than I remembered and worth it. Just get a Giant Food membership card if you ever do decide to go because it's a decent discount.
  16. mitchnick
    Evidence of a SER. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025012512&fh=384&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  17. mitchnick
    Ohh, that sux. Head over to Luray Caverns. Consolation prize: https://www.nps.gov/shen/learn/photosmultimedia/webcams.htm
  18. mitchnick
    12z Gem looks to have abandoned ship on us.
  19. mitchnick
    12z Gem won't look like the 0z unfortunately.
  20. mitchnick
    You could say the AI agrees with the Eps this run.
  21. mitchnick
    Since when did you surrender your weenie membership?
  22. mitchnick
    But 850's are all above 0 before and during the storm.
  23. mitchnick
    Differences between AI and EPS is pretty stark. In fact, differences between 0z Gem and AI were substantial too despite a similar result, which probably a red flag.
  24. mitchnick
    Still in the game, but would love to see the AI lock in for a hit. Otoh, it wasn’t until around 120hrs out before it locked in for last week.
  25. mitchnick
    And that’s based on 91/20 climo too.
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