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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    Be careful hanging your hat on 1 strong factor and disregarding competing, weaker ones. Sometimes the strong ones do prevail, but it's those weaker, competing ones that make long term forecasting so difficult imho.
  2. mitchnick
    That was an option that I can still go with, but we go Rt. 3 to 17 and then cut over to 64 at Williamsburg. On my way now so we'll see how I feel when I'm on 97 in MD whether to take 50 east. Damn bridge tunnel is $21, which constitutes rape in my book.
  3. mitchnick
    I'll say this much, no I'm complaining about going down to the obx, but driving it in 1 day from here vs. my old place near BWI in a real pita, especially on a Friday. I should be in the middle of rush hour once I get to Norfolk. Arrrrrg!
  4. mitchnick
    Don't need them. Old age is taking care of that!
  5. mitchnick
    Good. Better summer and into the fall before the inevitable rubber band snap sometime in winter.
  6. mitchnick
    I stopped drinking years ago.
  7. mitchnick
    I have a late vacation this year and have been holding my breath on Tropical threats next week on the OBX. Looks like I get lucky and win again by not buying travel insurance. Biggest threat is too cool to get into the pool. Good thing the neighbors won't know what they're missing not seeing me in a bathing suit. Lol
  8. mitchnick
    If only...
  9. mitchnick
    Euro seasonal does now show a solid weak Niña fwiw. Bye-bye 19/20 lol
  10. mitchnick
    Don't you find it crazy that none of the "experts" mentioned it in their forecasts? I will give them some slack with their original forecasts since the solar activity was supposed to peak by now and at a lower level. But I would have thought that at least a few of them would have cautioned about it with updates before now. It just supports my skepticism with any long range (years, decade(s), etc.) temp forecasts. And if it's not at a point of certainty with the high solar effects, seems like even more skepticism for long range forecasting is warranted imho.
  11. mitchnick
    Ot. Shame they don't make car dealer commercials like this anymore.
  12. mitchnick
    Generally BN August across the area and 2 decently BN cold shots with another next week is certainly different from what we've had during the period the last 5+ years if my broken memory serves.
  13. mitchnick
    Those are August forecasts. Let's see what happens when September forecasts are out...God help us!
  14. mitchnick
    York 45 low
  15. mitchnick
    Consensus missed last winter as well. I don't like seeing the Euro seasonal going against us because it's been best with its Niña forecast. New Euro seasonal run comes out on the Euro site Thursday I believe, so we'll see. Paid sites may already have it, idk. Hopefully, it looks more like the Cansips, and even the Cfs2 for that matter which has recently looked more like the Cansips with cold draped across Canada and the northern tier.
  16. mitchnick
    If we're lucky, the cold shots will keep coming thru the winter followed by warmer periods preceeded by snowfall. The last 2 Cansips runs (for the winter period) sorta show that as possible based on 5H and surface temps for December and January. Cfs2 is now saying it's possible for December too, but I won't be shocked if I get banned for mentioning the Cfs2. The place to be this winter will be north methinks, at least more than usual. Thus, Bubbler and I will be frustrated a little more this year if the Cansips is closer to right than wrong. But we'll get our chances like everyone else.
  17. mitchnick
    Trust me, I did not take it personally nor do I take myself seriously. Purely for some levity. I don't have a Twitter account nor do I choose to browse it and believe those some of my better decisions in life. Lol
  18. mitchnick
    Just when I thought I could start saving money on therapy, you have to drop this bomb on me? I need some time in a corner alone.
  19. mitchnick
    You could have saved yourself the effort and asked first if I cared, because I don't. We all knew what you were trying to do with your original post, so don't run away from it. And yes, I knew the March record was matched in 2012 ( which is why I said was "first recorded") just you like you know it was also matched in 1994. So thanks for proving my original point that your effort to diminish the frost forecast is dwarfed by "days of yore" when during the same year a monthly record low was recorded, a monthly record high was recorded then matched 1 decade then 3 decades later. P.s. Enjoy future conversations on the subject. I'm done.
  20. mitchnick
    Change the discussion when your point is destroyed, ehh. Lol Lightweight.
  21. mitchnick
    Your efforts to suggest the "days of yore" were any different falls short. The record high for the month of March at Bradford was first recorded on March 30, (you guessed it) 1986. Lol
  22. mitchnick
    I'd take that bet too if I were you.
  23. mitchnick
  24. mitchnick
    Oz Gfs went a little tropical happy, but 6z naso much.
  25. mitchnick
    For the inland Mid-Atlantic and most SNE areas, snow to sleet/zr seem like our best chances this year, with a flat out change to all rain in coastal/lowland areas. Short of a fluke, or should I say miracle, it's not a pattern conducive to 6"+ all snow events imby by any stretch.
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