mitchnick

47 at close Wunderground station.

The 3 long range models agree December will be warm. No argument there from me. Changes start in January, which would likely be on or after the 15th since the change to a more favorable pattern strikes me as gradual over the season. So barring a fluke or pure magic, I would roll the dice and say 1/15-2/25 is the my window for snow imby, peak climo basically. Different story in ENE & NE of course.

In light of the progged Easterly anomalies upon us now and current SSTA's, it's hard to buy the November spike in SSTA anomalies on this run attached. How that would change other forecasting parameters is anyone's guess.

Much better than September with December and January just below. Here's last month.

Here's a shocker. Euro NAO. Much better than last month's run, or should I say the last 14 years! Lol

BN February.

Old run. New one below. Cooler than last runs as winter progresses.

Fwiw, new Euro monthly out today is a bit cooler than last runs and has a similar progression thru the winter of cooling as Cfs2 and Cansips We're still AN for the months, but less than prior runs. December has the greatest AN anomalies solidly in the +1-2C while January is barely in the +1-2C meaning we're close to the +.5-1C, which is not too warm for seasonal snow. February drops to only +.5-1C. The good news is we are solidly in normal precip each month. With occasional cold intrusion that would be expected with those kind of temp anomalies and normal precip, a few decently timed short waves might get us to something closer to normal than recent years.

Link to today's Cfs2 monthly temps. Similar progression to Euro. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html Link to Cansips starting December. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2024100500&fh=2

Lol you need to compare monthlies. September forecast doesn't include February, but the progression is cooler as the winter progresses just like Cfs2 and Cansips. September forecast for December and January on top and October forecast for December to February below.

New Euro monthly out on the free site. Dare I say that the probabilities maps are noticeably cooler than last runs and look similar to cooler areas shown on the Cfs2 and Cansips.

Breaking up nicely here with more sun than clouds.

I believe the Euro seasonal usually comes out on the 5th of the month, so I'm sure there will be the typical "me first" rush to post it by one of the usual suspects. Hint: If it's not JB to post it first, it's not cold/snowy!

Ughhh. So tired of the humidity. No ground fog here but it's a very low overcast. Closest Wunderground station says 62, which explains the lack of fog. At 53, I'd be in the soup.

Actually, it's been updated to upper 60's on Monday, mid 60's Tuesday and Wednesday, and lower 60's on Thursday!

Nws has me mid 60's during the day and mid 40's at night Monday-Wednesday. No complaints here. Guess I'll be burning some oil.

I remember it, but I saw nothing.

Should be some decent aurora action on the 6th. Northern folks having the best shot at seeing something. Still have never witnessed the northern lights. Maybe this time as this flare was strong and directed right at earth.

Thumbing my nose to mother nature.

Back yard looks like cr@p, but it's been mowed. I figure I'll mow again on Tuesday at regular, unadvisably low level.

You win the award for the best timed vacation. Congrats

I did my front yard and am now sitting in my sunroom with a blank stare at the backyard, which is much bigger than the front. Ughhh

Yep. Warm shot is over per top GFS map. If the Cfs2 is right (bottom map), cooling should continue through mid-November then it wanes.

SUNNNNNNNNN!

Yeah, I was comparing the other 2 maps cyclonicwx.com has for the 2. My bad. I still can't understand these discrepancies. If the different sources can't agree on SSTA now, how in Sam Hill are we supposed to trust historical maps?