mitchnick

Not imby.

Euro is a no show on the cold this run.

First shots of truly chilly air on both Gfs and Canadian at 12z. Haven't seen the Euro yet.

Another rain shower here. This wx sux. I'd almost prefer it have record warmth and see posts the world is going to end any moment because of it. Lol

Have you always been a fan of theirs?

Lol. 1 thing I don't do is fight over sports. All sports have become an arm of the corporate entertainment industry. In the end, it means nothing to me. Last time I paid to attend a baseball/football game was in 1979 at Memorial stadium, and even then I got a college student discount. The Orioles were playing the Angels and Frank Tanana was pitching. He was throwing nothing but aspirins at the Orioles, who couldn't touch them. I think it was in the 3rd inning when he had to leave for some injury. Orioles ended up winning because of it.

I do most of the improvements in my home from replacing windows, doors, insulation, hardwood floors, moldings, etc. But I have no experience with heating and cooling beyond sealing and insulating ducts. If I did, I'd probably just go with a Goodman for $3-4K instead of the +$10K I am looking at getting it installed by a contractor. I got spoiled back in my MD house by having an employee of the HVAC company replace my original heat pump on the side and then having a client's husband replace it again (I was in the house for 33 years.) Up here, I'm just another "mark" the HVAC contractors.

As a lifelong Yankees fan and Oriole hater, I can only wish the worst for your team. Lol p.s. I used the most obnoxious emoji I could find in keeping with the reputation of Yankees fans!

My oil furnace was installed by prior owner in 2018 and ac in 2017. I was seriously thinking about getting a heat pump or heat pump and gas furnace, but the numbers after estimates don't work i.e. $ savings vs. cost. So I'm just going to wait for them to die before replacing them, providing I don't die first! Lol The thing I don't like is that the oil furnace requires a chimney vent, so when it gets windy, even though there's a draft damper on the system, there's still a draft effect as from any chimney. My house is sealed well, with that the only weak spot, so I hoped to fix it but it just makes no sense financially for the little bit of air infiltration from the chimney. So the final plan is to replace the ac unit with a heat pump should the ac fail, which would save on oil with temps above 35 degrees.

I topped off my oil at the end of last season in the upper $3's, so it'll be January, maybe February if I'm lucky, before I have to refill.

I like it cool too, but live with warmer temps so I can maintain a lower bill...$112 this month. Winter I keep days at 67/68 and nights at 64/65.

Wow...I'm surprised to hear that. My house has slowly crept down, with no heat or a/c, from 72 on Saturday morning on the 1sr floor to 70 on the first and 71 on the 2nd now.

Anybody turn on their heat yet? I haven't, but just wondering.

Nice discussion. Fwiw, the daily Cfs2 has been slowly morphed toward a Cansips look. The Cfs2 site, which I believe can be trusted more than Cfs2 maps from other vendors but does not provide 500mb maps, has slowly brought colder air into the northern tier and southeast resulting in normal temps for the Dec-Feb period from DCA on north. Here's the link to the site for anyone interested: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html Direct link to today's trimonthlies temps I was referring to: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/usT2me3Sea.html Today's individual monthly temps: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html

Glad you're feeling better. I come from a family of dentists. My only fear of dentists stems from childhood when my father knew I couldn't talk back with a drill in my mouth so he took the opportunity to remind me of my "shortcomings." I can't begin to tell you how much that hurt.

A touch over .5" for yesterday. Looks like a fresh round incoming.

Not much different than 55. At least I can say I remember the day JFK was shot, so I got that going for me, which is nishhhhh!

First tweet was prefaced with "potentially" and the second with "hopefully". Doesn't sound like any confidence to me. More X hype posts to say "I saw it first" IF it happens while keeping the ability to say "it was just a chance" if it fails. There are going to be sunspots at this part of the cycle, so I don't get these people aside from the need to post.

Thank God I don't care about football as the Ravens are doing their absolute best to lose bad.

The only opposite correlation (as far as anybody in this thread has shown) to a + or - NAO winter to fall months is with October per Chuck's research. However, even that opposite correlation is weak as discussed earlier in this thread.

Good time now to test MJO forecasting because just about every model has it going into the W. Hemisphere and Africa over the coming weeks. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ncpe.shtml

Hate to say it. 2.2" in the gauge this morning. Sorry Bubbler. You got screwed again.

Storm developing out front of the main band to my NW is really starting to pop and appears headed right for me. Thunder too.

Radar is red hot tonight. Just had a heavy shower that came and went so I decided to look at radar. Looks like derecho on radar.

Fukushima was caused by a design flaw by not having backup generators high enough in elevation. Nobody died from radiation. By the time they plant went to hell, citizens had fled the area, assuming they hadn't drowned. It was the flooding that was the problem.