mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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I watch the MJO and 850 wind anomaly forecasts on this site that are updated daily and watch how the stronger trade forecasts have gotten weaker and fractured as time progresses. It may change at some point, but it hasn't yet. http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html
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According to this Euro product, tropical storm frequency mean doesn't increase above the climate mean until the week of 8/12-8/19. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_tcyc_family_frequency?base_time=202407210000¶meter=Accumulated cyclone energy&valid_time=202407290000 Fwiw, this related Euro product puts the activity chances highest east of Florida for that week. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_tcyc_family_forecast?area=Global&base_time=202407210000&intensity=Tropical storms¶meter=Forecast&valid_time=202408190000
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I have no idea if he's using it this year. The post was intended to be facetious.
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If you blow JB's 95/96 analog, he'll never forgive you.
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I have no idea how it ultimately turns out ONI-wise. Anything from a La Nada to barely moderate is still on the table imho, with weak Niña favored. Regardless of ONI, however, we're definitely stuck in a Niña background state which also leaves a wide variety of possibilities for the winter. If one is planning on issuing a winter forecast, I'd put off the issue date as long as possible. Lol
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Along with the moderate/strong to strong.
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Surface is more than a little bit different however. If Chuck's right, it won't matter much. In any event, considering Gawx's post on the SOI and persistent warmth in Enso 3.4 & 4, it's "likely" going to take a real turnaround to get an ONI colder than a weak Niña imho. But that could change, of course.
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.35" today
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Always a safe bet in the summer. P.s. They're open now.
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Bad news @Bubbler86 No power at the Starlight...
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Yikes! Just looked at my old back yard, BWI, and they got to 104 yesterday. Time to quit complaining. https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBWI.html
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Neighborhood behind me still without power. Man I hate being without power.
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Poor folks in the neighborhood behind me haven't had power for the last 3 hours.
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Ended with .7" with a ton of destructive winds. Lots of tree limbs down along the street in addition to the neighbor's entire tree.
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I was ground desert last year.
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Crushing it now.
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And I'm right under it. Neighbor's tree of 15-18" base diameter down.
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Jaded weenie memory?
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I always think back to 01/02 when the sun had an unexpected rise in activity. My grass was greener than the average summer!
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Better now than the winter.
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Blue sky to the west visible but still crushing imby.
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Getting crushed by an isolated t storm.
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Here's the Cfs2 850 anomalies for the earlier 2m temps. Hard to not at least crack a smile with this map.
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Cfs2 new extended forecast out today for Jan-Mar is looking a lot like the Cansips' July run.
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I don't know if that's the only criteria they use. If you look at the graph at the top of the page, it includes sunspot numbers as well as solar flux and 3 other measures. I never looked into it nor really care for that matter. We're at or near the top now and should be headed down come winter is all I need to know.
