mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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I had a 15 minute torrential storm around 10pm and more rain overnight, but no idea how much fell thanks to one of my granddaughters filling up the rain gauge yesterday.
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Regarding the Caribbean hurricane season, Euro coincidentally has a decent amount of surface low pressure there for this year's hurricane season. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_mslp?area=GLOB&base_time=202406010000&stats=tsum&valid_time=202407020000
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I saw that current Tao map yesterday on the Stormsurf site linked below. http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html I assumed it was wrong because it's showing temps well above everything else i.e. Oisst and Coral Reefs. In fact, if you go to that Stormsurf link directly below the Tao map you posted, there is a different subsurface anomaly map from Godas that looks way more reasonable. That said, to your point, this year is still warmer than 1998.
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That's why I said a Niña is clearly favored, but the "everything still supports a moderate event" is just more modeling. So I'm suggesting that the degree of the Niña is far from determined with Euro and Cfs2 trends plus 3-month forecast fails of .5C+.
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Most models have been cutting back on the strength of the Nina as we progress toward winter. The March Euro forecast for the end of June had 3.4 between -.1 and -.2 and 4 around 0. Oisst numbers from today has 3.4 around +.338 and 4 at +.588. I posted the other day how the Cfs2 is barely weak and, coincidentally, has gone from decently AN temps in the east to normal'ish for DJF. At this point, a Nina is clearly favored, but the trend on the Euro and Cfs2 is clear for the last 3 months. If the trend doesn't change next week with July's forecasts, weak Nina or La Nada get my vote.
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I think you just changed my mind to be honest. I think I'll try it another day. Wasn't thinking about the Friday crowds. Once you retire, you lose sense of days.
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First time at Shady Maple this evening. Better be good with an hour and a half drive when I could go the the Starlight 5 minutes only away. Lol
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Some T-storms starting to pop in the mts. headed SE.
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Days getting shorter starting today. I can already see the difference in this morning's sunrise with the loss of 1 second.
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After being pretty gung-ho on a mod to strong Niña, Cfs2 is looking pretty weakish. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon®ion=global&pkg=ssta&runtime=2024062006&fh=6
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Wow. I call that camping out! In summer, I have our thermostat set at 75 during the day and 72 at night. Winter it's 67 during the day and 64 or 65 at night. If my grandkids are over in the winter, I'll put it up 2 or 3 degrees. Between new attic insultation and sealing of air leakage I had a contractor do and installation of new windows, sealing, insulation of heating ducts, new exterior doors, and a variety of other insulating measures that would bore you to death I did myself, I do pretty well on heating & cooling costs.
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Uhhh...no! That's nuts. Who can sleep at 82°?
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I think you're being a wee bit too aggressive with the idea of a snowy winter.
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No, but does mean that NA Snowcover will expand rapidly in October.
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Time for this old man to do his daily 2.5 mile walk. If I never post again, you'll know why.
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Fwiw, June's Euro monthly sea level pressure forecast thru October. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_mslp?area=GLOB&base_time=202406010000&stats=tsum&valid_time=202407020000
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Rapid cooling in the Pacific over the last 2 weeks. https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html
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Personally, none of that bothers me about DT. Subtract from it a lot of it intended for the shock humor value, and there's little left imho. But I do think he relies on the Euro more than one should in light of the gains in other modeling. It just ain't what it used to be relative to other guidance, at least when it comes to winter forecasting in the MA imho. But it can still score a coup or 2 which forces you to give it more weight than you should, again imho.
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Updated Euro plumes. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_nino_plumes?base_time=202406010000&nino_area=NINO3-4
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1.12"
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Heavy rains here for the past 2 hours with more to come it seems.
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Drier out your way would probably suggest High Pressure overhead. Might result in more troughiness in the east...he says with gleam in his eyes. Or maybe that's just because I woke up at 4:30.
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Nice site for solar activity. https://solen.info/solar/index.html
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Lol. Petered out on my western doorstep to light showers. Not complaining.
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1/4" from round 1 and getting ready for a drenching from that developing cluster along the MD/PA line. Bubbler should be getting rocked now.
