mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Bad news @Bubbler86 No power at the Starlight...
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Yikes! Just looked at my old back yard, BWI, and they got to 104 yesterday. Time to quit complaining. https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBWI.html
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Neighborhood behind me still without power. Man I hate being without power.
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Poor folks in the neighborhood behind me haven't had power for the last 3 hours.
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Ended with .7" with a ton of destructive winds. Lots of tree limbs down along the street in addition to the neighbor's entire tree.
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I was ground desert last year.
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Crushing it now.
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And I'm right under it. Neighbor's tree of 15-18" base diameter down.
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Jaded weenie memory?
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I always think back to 01/02 when the sun had an unexpected rise in activity. My grass was greener than the average summer!
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Better now than the winter.
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Blue sky to the west visible but still crushing imby.
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Getting crushed by an isolated t storm.
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Here's the Cfs2 850 anomalies for the earlier 2m temps. Hard to not at least crack a smile with this map.
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Cfs2 new extended forecast out today for Jan-Mar is looking a lot like the Cansips' July run.
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I don't know if that's the only criteria they use. If you look at the graph at the top of the page, it includes sunspot numbers as well as solar flux and 3 other measures. I never looked into it nor really care for that matter. We're at or near the top now and should be headed down come winter is all I need to know.
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Apparently the "expert" at that link says the peak was in May per the "Monthly solar cycle data."
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Got around .15" yesterday.
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Looks like we're at the top with a double peak per smoothed numbers near the bottom of the page. https://solen.info/solar/index.html
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The east coast radar signature reminds me a lot of how 1/25/00 shield backed in off the ocean. We don't usually see that liie they do in New England.
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Normal is for wimps.
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Raining lt to mod with 1/3 of the NW'ern sky blue.
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I was looking at the numbers behind the attached pic representing equatorial temp anomalies surface to 300 meters down. I found the actual numbers used to generate that chart at the link below. It only goes back to 1979, so it's without the 72/73 Super Niño. But if you look at all the springs/early summers after strong and super Niños since 79', in years when a Niña followed, temps from the surface down became much cooler than this year. In fact, this year bottomed in April, held steady in May, and started warming again in June. No other post Niño spring/early summer did that. I know we don't have too many years to consider (I looked at 82/83, 91/92, 97/98, 15/16, & 23/24.) My point is, this year is unlike any other post strong/super Niño spring since 1979. So it just makes me think that for Enso to reach anything colder than a weak Niña will be tough, if at all. And even assuming a moderate to strong background Niña state of the atmosphere, what would the warmer waters mean to an eastern conus winter? Dunno and I'm too lazy to look!!! https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt P.s. Moderate Niños of 86/87, 94/95, 02/03, & 09/10 that were followed by a Niña also had larger temp drops by the following June than this year.
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Coincidentally, I just noticed this product from the Euro today. Basically says the chances of Atlantic tropical activity at or below normal thru the first week of August. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_tcyc_family_frequency?base_time=202407080000¶meter=Accumulated cyclone energy&valid_time=202407150000
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Thanks Larry. I got thinking that the EPS didn't do so hot with last winter's forecast. Although I couldn't find a site that had the 1/24 EPS 5H forecast from July 2023, I did find one from September 2023 for 1/24-3/24. so keep a stiff upper lip! Lol
