mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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According to this Euro product, tropical storm frequency mean doesn't increase above the climate mean until the week of 8/12-8/19. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_tcyc_family_frequency?base_time=202407210000¶meter=Accumulated cyclone energy&valid_time=202407290000 Fwiw, this related Euro product puts the activity chances highest east of Florida for that week. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_tcyc_family_forecast?area=Global&base_time=202407210000&intensity=Tropical storms¶meter=Forecast&valid_time=202408190000
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I have no idea if he's using it this year. The post was intended to be facetious.
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If you blow JB's 95/96 analog, he'll never forgive you.
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I have no idea how it ultimately turns out ONI-wise. Anything from a La Nada to barely moderate is still on the table imho, with weak Niña favored. Regardless of ONI, however, we're definitely stuck in a Niña background state which also leaves a wide variety of possibilities for the winter. If one is planning on issuing a winter forecast, I'd put off the issue date as long as possible. Lol
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Along with the moderate/strong to strong.
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Surface is more than a little bit different however. If Chuck's right, it won't matter much. In any event, considering Gawx's post on the SOI and persistent warmth in Enso 3.4 & 4, it's "likely" going to take a real turnaround to get an ONI colder than a weak Niña imho. But that could change, of course.
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.35" today
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Always a safe bet in the summer. P.s. They're open now.
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Bad news @Bubbler86 No power at the Starlight...
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Yikes! Just looked at my old back yard, BWI, and they got to 104 yesterday. Time to quit complaining. https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBWI.html
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Neighborhood behind me still without power. Man I hate being without power.
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Poor folks in the neighborhood behind me haven't had power for the last 3 hours.
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Ended with .7" with a ton of destructive winds. Lots of tree limbs down along the street in addition to the neighbor's entire tree.
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I was ground desert last year.
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Crushing it now.
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And I'm right under it. Neighbor's tree of 15-18" base diameter down.
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Jaded weenie memory?
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I always think back to 01/02 when the sun had an unexpected rise in activity. My grass was greener than the average summer!
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Better now than the winter.
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Blue sky to the west visible but still crushing imby.
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Getting crushed by an isolated t storm.
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Here's the Cfs2 850 anomalies for the earlier 2m temps. Hard to not at least crack a smile with this map.
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Cfs2 new extended forecast out today for Jan-Mar is looking a lot like the Cansips' July run.
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I don't know if that's the only criteria they use. If you look at the graph at the top of the page, it includes sunspot numbers as well as solar flux and 3 other measures. I never looked into it nor really care for that matter. We're at or near the top now and should be headed down come winter is all I need to know.
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Apparently the "expert" at that link says the peak was in May per the "Monthly solar cycle data."
