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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    Makes sense that there would be a grand finale at the end of the cold pattern as it has happened often over the years. Now all we can do is hope that we're in the bullseye if it does happen.
  2. mitchnick
    6z AI Precip. Move forward from here. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501220600&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502010600 850's move forward from here https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202501220600&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502010600
  3. mitchnick
    Crazy mind think alike. Lol
  4. mitchnick
    @Heisy and those interested If 850 temps cooperated, it looks like a full blown Blizzard on the AI for the 31st-1st. The u/l is so strong it kills 850's for part of the storm, but surface look marginal but OK. Obviously, can't take temps verbatim and the crummy mapscmay be overdoing the 850 warming.
  5. mitchnick
    Thought likewise.
  6. mitchnick
    Dt agrees!
  7. mitchnick
    And I can almost guarantee it's frozen. My wife and I were in Dover yesterday and every stream was frozen solid, with only 5 or 10% open in the largest rivers.
  8. mitchnick
    Lot of discussion over the years about how cold THV usually is. I wasn't sure if this ever mentioned. If you zoom in on the NWS Mesonet site, you can see that the reporting station is down near a low spot along the Little Conewago Creek.
  9. mitchnick
    Every model except the Bomm and Canadian has the wave dying into the COD. But there's no doubt the pattern is shifting as most of us snowlovers said it would come February. Whether we have a shot at snow we'll find out. Some of us will and some won't. I still believe cold returns for March, if not sooner. That's typical Niña in fact.
  10. mitchnick
    Right, but a WWB is already organized and will be hitting come early February.
  11. mitchnick
    6z Gfs close to something decent...at 240hrs. Lol
  12. mitchnick
    -13 for 2 consecutive hours at York Airport https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KTHV.html
  13. mitchnick
    0z AI is a miss for Monday, light rain for the end of next week, followed by 2 more rain events. Trough goes out west giving us a large ridge in the east. Maybe some light at the end of the tunnel/run with ridging building back over Alaska and Greenland, or it could be transient as it's too early to say if the trough pushes east in response.
  14. mitchnick
    Agree. Said over the La Nina thread a few times I believe. And this attachment supports the idea with the westerly wind burst that's actually getting going now, so it's not a pipe dream forecast.
  15. mitchnick
    That's one helleva heavy band of snow. https://radar.weather.gov/station/KAKQ/standard
  16. mitchnick
    Verbatim, surface temps are between +4 - +8C. You're right, that's not exactly the way I want it.
  17. mitchnick
    I agree it has potential, but that's as far as I'll go right now. If this was the kind of season where we were getting hit left and right like 13/14, then I'd be more optimistic. So I'm clear and to avoid some idiotic post by some idiot who can't read, I'm not saying it can't or won't happen, just that I don't see enough to be optimistic at this point.
  18. mitchnick
    It's just a temporary relaxation as the cold from Canada does head south, but the pattern doesn't look snowy at the start of February.
  19. mitchnick
    Not really cold either unfortunately. 850's
  20. mitchnick
  21. mitchnick
    Oh it's a better push alright...it pushes it south and precip never makes it north of central VA, and it's rain down there. Monday deal stays south as well. So in short, nothing...as in no snow or rain. Lol
  22. mitchnick
    Ensemble snow means are all lousy too. So much for parsing through the weeds finding a pot of gold...more like stepping in dog poop.
  23. mitchnick
    Nothing imminent is all you can sensibly say.
  24. mitchnick
    500mb is a non-snow friendly mess.
  25. mitchnick
    Well, it had to wait for the cold to get put of the way you know.
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