mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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I said it halts it for a bit. EDIT: I should have added that although I haven't looked, I'd be surprised if Enso 4 was as warm as it is now, and that would have an effect on sensible weam
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Don't look now, but just about all modeling gets MJO forcing into 8/1 for at least a few days. Probably halts Enso cooling for a bit. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml
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12z Gfs has 500mb thicknesses of 540 or less in SE Canada at the end of the run! Lol
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The 1 is TAO/TRITON and the other is NOAA/CPC. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml
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Euro has some offshore tropical action on last night's run ala 1995.
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Here on Hanover, that 12/20 storm dropped almost 6" before changing to sleet. It changed back to snow before ending and we ended up with around 8". The month of 2/21 dropped a little over 20". Yeah, I'd take that winter again.
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I was all for a super Niña this year originally advertised by the Cansips with the hope of breaking the warmth in the western Pacific, but it's not to be and the writing is on the wall for a big fail on any modeling that suggested a moderate or strong Niña. That said, I have noticed that there have been a good deal of easterly wind anomalies over the past week or 2 and currently progged along and WEST of the Dateline. I wonder if that might cause a dent in the warmth out there. Don't know, but if the progs are right, I'm interested in seeing what happens. It wouldn't do anything for any areas except for "maybe" Enso 4.
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Funny you mention this, I check this site almost every day. Has some pretty cool info. Just put in your zip code for your back yard. https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/@4558482
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Here's the Tax link I used. It has an exhaustive list of stuff including insulation. https://www.energystar.gov/about/federal-tax-credits/insulation For the fireplace, you can supposedly find on the internet, though I never looked, a blow up balloon type of thing for your flue that will block all the air loss. It's made to collapse when it reaches a certain temperature in case you forget it's there and light a fire. We never use our fireplace, so I just took some of that 1/4" foam foundation air seal sold on a roll I had laying around and tucked it under the damper when shut. We don't have any recessed lighting in this house. The only thing I can't change for a reasonable cost is the chimney for the oil furnace. I know that's a source for heat loss, but I ain't spending $15k for a new furnace since there's nothing wrong with the unit I have that was installed in 2018 by the prior owner.
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At least we know why the Snowman19/Roundy love affair ended. (Just bustin' on ya' Snowman)
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In the summer, I find my 2nd floor is no where near as warm, with the 1st floor less noticeable as you would expect. But more noticeable all over the house in the winter, with many areas of my 2nd floor definitely warmer due to apparent lousy job of insulating dating back to original build in 1978. He!!, they originally only had R19 in the attic! At some point, however, the original owners had somebody do a half-azzed job of adding another layer of R19...but the added R19 still had the vapor barrier, the knuckleheads! One thing you should also do, if you haven't already, is to check your attic access panel for insulation and making sure it has weatherstripping around where it is supported. Most homes they just use door/window casing trim around the framed opening and let the panel rest on the trim. That will leak a lot of air. All you need is to buy 1 of those $3-$4 packs of weatherstripping and put it around the perimeter where the panel rests and you're good to go. Fwiw, I also pancaked 3 layers of 2"-R10 foam board insulation on top of the access panel. I used that because I had extra from another spot where I used it (it's not cheap.) But I think Lowe's sells 2' x 2' sized panels of foam insulation instead of buying 4' x 8' sheets I had. Alternatively, glue or staple a piece of fiberglass insulation on the attic side of the access panel. Anyway, you can see I take my heating and cooling bills seriously!
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No complaints here. I just got my electric bill for the past month and was pleasantly surprised. Apparently that attic insulation and other measures I took since buying this place in 2019 have worked, notwithstanding my 13 SEER A/C unit.
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Honestly, that makes me question the accuracy of those maps.
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Nws is not that hot thru Wednesday here. I'm going to Williamsburg next week for a few days and even down there it's not that bad with max temps in the upper 80's.
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Just under .2" in around 15 minutes.
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Heavy shower developing right over me now.
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.4" on both Sunday and Monday fwiw
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I watch the MJO and 850 wind anomaly forecasts on this site that are updated daily and watch how the stronger trade forecasts have gotten weaker and fractured as time progresses. It may change at some point, but it hasn't yet. http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html
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According to this Euro product, tropical storm frequency mean doesn't increase above the climate mean until the week of 8/12-8/19. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_tcyc_family_frequency?base_time=202407210000¶meter=Accumulated cyclone energy&valid_time=202407290000 Fwiw, this related Euro product puts the activity chances highest east of Florida for that week. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_tcyc_family_forecast?area=Global&base_time=202407210000&intensity=Tropical storms¶meter=Forecast&valid_time=202408190000
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I have no idea if he's using it this year. The post was intended to be facetious.
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If you blow JB's 95/96 analog, he'll never forgive you.
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I have no idea how it ultimately turns out ONI-wise. Anything from a La Nada to barely moderate is still on the table imho, with weak Niña favored. Regardless of ONI, however, we're definitely stuck in a Niña background state which also leaves a wide variety of possibilities for the winter. If one is planning on issuing a winter forecast, I'd put off the issue date as long as possible. Lol
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Along with the moderate/strong to strong.
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Surface is more than a little bit different however. If Chuck's right, it won't matter much. In any event, considering Gawx's post on the SOI and persistent warmth in Enso 3.4 & 4, it's "likely" going to take a real turnaround to get an ONI colder than a weak Niña imho. But that could change, of course.
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.35" today
