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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. Eps. 10:1, so you should figure that in too since ratios should be a bit better.
  2. 12z Euro just misses us to the south with that storm showing up at 180hrs from now on the Icon and Ggem. Plenty of time for adjustment.
  3. Pivotal not as generous, but a keeper nonetheless.
  4. Ggem has the Pivotal storm headed toward us, but is warmer to start with cold air lagging. Icon has a shot, if closer to being accurate, to be a decent hit imho.
  5. I like the look on the 180hrs Icon map. EDIT: GFS is on its own. Toss.
  6. That's why I stick to what the best degreed mets use exclusively...snowfall maps!
  7. The only way to know for certain is if the sim radar option is offered. On Pivotal, USA products have sim radar but other models don't. Maybe WB or weathermodels.com offers them, idk.
  8. Nam holds onto the precip longer by pulling in some ocean moisture. Methinks that's a sign of future qpf increases.
  9. Hrrr early on putting southern tier of PA as the bullseye per this progged radar. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=refcmp&rh=2024021512&fh=35&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  10. 6z Eps expanded 3"+ area with a dot of 3.5 over Bubbler!
  11. Maybe March has a reasonable shot at a fluke.
  12. Ukie suddenly loves us down south. Very "Iconic."
  13. There seems to be less spacing between the vort passing to our north on Thursday evening and the one set to hit us. Need ours to slow or the other to speed up. I think we've lost any soitgern moisture of consequence too.
  14. There are studies that Bluewave claims points to warm waters in the western Pac and Indian Ocean as the origin of our Pacific pattern problems. I'm not prepared to sign onto it, but as I posted in the El Nino thread, I'm all in for a super Nina which would cool that area. Then starting in 25/26 winter, God willing, see how things look.
  15. Because all forecasts past 5 days are 1 notch above a guess. They should put 50-75% of the money and resources currently used for anything beyond 7 days into short range modeling imho.
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