mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Well, I'm not so sure about your MJO 4-6 prediction. It's been stuck in the COD for a long stretch and the more reliable modeling has it visiting 4-6 briefly before hibernating back into the COD. It's early, I know, but this has been an uncharacteristically long stretch in the COD with more time in it to come, so nothing's locked in yet imho.
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The question becomes if the ONI stays weakish and the warmth in Enso 4 persists thru fall into winter while holding on to a Niña atmosphere, what will that mean for winter in the east? I don't know, but if the juice out west in the equatorial Pac holds, it has got to be better news than a traditional Modoki mod-strong Nina imh wag.
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Agree. I am not yet convinced this winter north of 40N is shot. Further south gets tougher with every mile you go. But all Niñas have periods cold enough to snow, and the backing off of the Niña's strength by Cansips and the Cfs2 have come with colder temps. Still too early to say anything is a lock, but that's not to say a decent winter won't be a struggle.
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I don't know if anyone took a look at the Cansips temps for Dec-Mar, but it's pretty darn cold up north. Caveats are that it's quite a change from last month's run and the 500mb anomalies are suggestive of something warmer.
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It's in on Tropical Tidbits. Niña is weaker than last month. December the coldest month. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2024070100&fh=5
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Decent breeze out there with nice gusts as well. If only it was September.
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Put it back in.
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1.6" on the dot for the day/overnight. Pretty soupy feeling out there this morning.
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Torrential rain now but no wind of consequence thankfully.
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Thunder has begun.
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I think I'll escape any torrential stuff, but that stuff developing in the WV panhandle looks aimed right at me for now. Already lightening up some.
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Rain has begun and in 2 minutes borders on heavy. Surprisingly, no thunder yet.
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I'm on the edge of being clobbered or -rn. Should know in minutes.
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Tornado warning down at least. Only severe T Storm warning. Not great, but better than a tornado.
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Agree 100%. Hurricanes, tornadoes, and strong winds aren't for me.
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Looking quite nasty to my north. I don't like how the highest returns seem to be drifting south instead of the typical NE path.
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As is typical of BWI Niñas, 10/11 winter was paultry for snowfall at BWI with only 14.4", and DCA with even less. I don't think any weenie south of 40N would shed a tear if the 10/11 analog didn't work out. Lol
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Warmth out west near or west of the dateline could result in a better Nina winter than a basin wide Nina. So far, most modeling has been reluctant to venture out of the COD for any period of time. But it's early, so we shall see.
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I had a 15 minute torrential storm around 10pm and more rain overnight, but no idea how much fell thanks to one of my granddaughters filling up the rain gauge yesterday.
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Regarding the Caribbean hurricane season, Euro coincidentally has a decent amount of surface low pressure there for this year's hurricane season. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_mslp?area=GLOB&base_time=202406010000&stats=tsum&valid_time=202407020000
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I saw that current Tao map yesterday on the Stormsurf site linked below. http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html I assumed it was wrong because it's showing temps well above everything else i.e. Oisst and Coral Reefs. In fact, if you go to that Stormsurf link directly below the Tao map you posted, there is a different subsurface anomaly map from Godas that looks way more reasonable. That said, to your point, this year is still warmer than 1998.
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That's why I said a Niña is clearly favored, but the "everything still supports a moderate event" is just more modeling. So I'm suggesting that the degree of the Niña is far from determined with Euro and Cfs2 trends plus 3-month forecast fails of .5C+.
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Most models have been cutting back on the strength of the Nina as we progress toward winter. The March Euro forecast for the end of June had 3.4 between -.1 and -.2 and 4 around 0. Oisst numbers from today has 3.4 around +.338 and 4 at +.588. I posted the other day how the Cfs2 is barely weak and, coincidentally, has gone from decently AN temps in the east to normal'ish for DJF. At this point, a Nina is clearly favored, but the trend on the Euro and Cfs2 is clear for the last 3 months. If the trend doesn't change next week with July's forecasts, weak Nina or La Nada get my vote.
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I think you just changed my mind to be honest. I think I'll try it another day. Wasn't thinking about the Friday crowds. Once you retire, you lose sense of days.
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First time at Shady Maple this evening. Better be good with an hour and a half drive when I could go the the Starlight 5 minutes only away. Lol
