mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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0z Hrrr drier
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Yep, and I never thought we'd have another storm like any of them.
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I'm not questioning his abilities, but that mets are slaves to the models. He changed his mind and forecast due to the change in modeling. Since all have access to the modeling, we can all come up with a reasonable forecast for our backyards, and some beyond our backyards.
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He sure did an about face from his position as recently as yesterday, if not this morning. Just goes to show you, in the end, may as well look at the models yourself for the forecast.
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Nam's 6hr forecast from 18z...right smack on the dot for slp location and strength. Encouraging on the issue of its forecast accuracy for the event.
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Bust
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Ukie https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024021212&fh=54&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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Latest Rap totals https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024021215&fh=36&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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Idk, seems like they're living in the past. Especially when you consider what Lwx is thinking. In any event, I think this is a 2-4" or 3-6" event imby from what I've seen so far.
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Definitely seeing on the Gfs and Gefs the influx of ocean moisture as it departs.
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Gefs
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Canadians nasso hot again. Ggem
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Icon still likes this weekend. Hope it comes south some, but that never happens.
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Gotta be tough to work for the Nws.
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Nws Lwx just put out a ws watch for 5" of snow in northern Baltimore County, all of Frederick and Carroll counties.
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It has that tongue of higher snowfall a bit north of other guidance that's showing the same feature. I'm on the south end at 3". Won't be surprised with a future adjustment if other guidance holds onto it.
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They should refer all forecast accumulations to weatherbell.com and provide a link
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Fast movement on 3k limits totals down here vs 6z, but still 4-5"
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3k should be decent again too.
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Still great imby
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Ninja'd!
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Moving a little faster than 6z, so that will limit amounts I believe.
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Nam will be better down here for sure.
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Man, 984mb slp at 12z tomorrow on tte Hrrr and the precip shield is compact.
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Just gunna post it's colder at 850 vs 6z
