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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. Another late night. I'm too old for this. No...I'm wayyy too old for this.
  2. Gfs goes and nails ENE after missing us. Some things on models never change.
  3. That's an average of the last 16 runs I believe. The more recent runs have been cold. Can always change, of course, especially when you're running the model 4x/day. Lol
  4. If it can't get Sunday right, surprised if it looks any better for next week.
  5. It'll figure it out and look like the other models, but not until it plays dumb for a bit.
  6. No. The 24th event I mentioned was the big one. But I doubt that it would be quick to jump on board due to discrete change(s) making such a big difference.
  7. If memory serves, BWI bottomed out at 5 degrees on the Sunday morning PD1 hit. Great memory there.
  8. Nbd at this point, but EuroAI pushes 24th off the coast to our south. Sunday still on course. Looks wetter too. Having trouble pulling up Sunday temps so I can't comment on them yet.
  9. Just need a few more northern jogs and we're perfect.
  10. Frankly, I'm not sure what to hope for after the cold/dry stretch.
  11. Some big differences in the 12z Gfs, Ukie, and Gem at 168hrs keeping "some" hope alive soon thereafter.
  12. Ukie with 2-4" on Sunday north and west of I95 and cities.
  13. No faith in that up here. You might fringed. If I'm wrong, trend better start before Saturday imho unless you can get the kind of change we saw in 12 hours on today's Gem, but across all guidance.
  14. I think you're right, or mostly right, without digging into it.
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