mitchnick

0z Gfs slower and further south. Gunna be better.

Assuming we can't get the cold to move in fast, next week can work if the vort can be delayed enough for the northern stream to come down and push it south. How could that happen? Well, closed lows have a tendency to slow down and meander a bit without a strong flow and most modeling is showing a closed southern vort that is slowing. The 18z Eps and operational Gfs are hopefully onto this slowing, which has brought snowfall further south on both runs. This is a low probability event for most south of MDT, with a start as rain for certain, so it would be, at best, a changeover to paste. But there is time, which may be the best feature at this point. Lol

Let me take a momment to admittedly misuse the Eps because I'm lazy. That said, %'s did increase as well. 12z on top, 18z on the bottom.

Nah, they're just looking for clicks! Lol

I made 1 post commenting on a similar feature on 3 runs that's 11-12 days away doesn't mean I believed it. Next week has a greater chance of snowing imby, but I don't believe it will based on current guudance. And who's not relaxed? Why can't people just give their opinions, good or bad, about our/their chances without being told to relax? If I relax any more, I'm going to soil my pants! And it's not 1 Gfs run. I said it the other day, we should be seeing model runs consistent with the patterns advertised on the long range products at this point. Look, we're on the same team, but I just see the outlook for the rest of the game differently. That could change at some point, but until I start seeing various models start to advertise looks conducive to potential big snows, I remain unconvinced of great results from the modeled great patterns. That said, I would be remiss if I didn't mention todays weekliesshowed the east coast with AN precip for the last 3 weeks of the forecast period. That's a first.

I said I don't buy the talk of great snow threats down the road. We may get snow, but the hype that has gone on in the MA forum and other internet sites suggesting the pattern will support heavy snows like 58 and 2010 is what I don't buy.

Honestly, I do not buy the talk of great snow threats down the road. Some years, it just doesn't want to snow, and this year is one of them.

First, I don't get the individual members with Pivotal package. But I had this long response almost finished, but in lieu of that, I simply find the ensembles of little value because they can't nail down a forecast at range and once within 48 hrs, operationals make more sense with their higher resolution. Blend of models is the better option to ensembles imho because it uses higher resolution solutions in deteriming an average forecast, but it's slow to update and has too much stale data that works to defeat its accuracy. But I appreciate your post.

Clearly, the know-it-alls that claimed the higher water vapor thanks to the volcano erruption would result in a strong pv were wrong by a magnitude of 10. That was all I heard about this past fall it seems next to the Niño.

It's a quick way to show the results from run to run changes. Lot quicker than showing a bunch of maps and explaining what the changes would mean especially since the real question is "how much snow." Plus its 5-6 days away so we can expect subtle differences to continue. But that's just my $00.02 opinion.

In 24 hours, Eps went from the top map to the bottom one. Remind me again what use the ensembles are. And we're supposed to believe the Extended Eps? Lol

Just about had it with these illusions of threats.

Got a real ear for music, ehh? Lol I've been playing the guitar for 51 years and many songs I learned to play I have no idea of the lyrics except for the refrain, chorus or title.

The sad fact is that its 11+ days away and we just saw what happened to our Monday/Tuesday threat in less than 36 hrs. Hard to get excited this far out

Ukie is way north with next week.

3 runs in a row on the Gfs

6z Eps north...way north from 0z.

Ukie is a huge hit. This is snow depth because they don't offer snowfall for some odd reason.

I looked at everything before coming in here and knew Bliz would be busy. Buckle up my friend, you've got a lot of work ahead of you this week and hopefully beyond!

I could never be that accomplished.

I never had any goals in life, except to finish my paper route on time.

They are pretty crazy. Better if we got the pattern earlier, but better late than never. Just better snow and not just get cold and dry. That would stink.

Lol. Ok

I just look at snowfall maps. At 7pm Monday, the snow is to our west with no accumulations. At 1AM on Tuesday, there is some snowfall accumulations. That's good for my purposes.

I know. Eps are showing mean snowfall period would be between Monday evening to Tuesday.