mitchnick
-
Posts
26,288 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by mitchnick
-
Close up
-
6z Eps better by an inch or so imby.
-
My guess is 6z Eps will continue to improve imby with a slight shift south. It'll be out shortly, so we'll know in a few.
-
U/l low is a tad stronger and a touch further south and west of 0z. 0z on top and 6z bottom. Both runs have slp at 995 with 6z a touch south and west like the 5h low.
-
Got that right. We can go from blizzard to bust easily in 1 or 2 modeling cycles.
-
6z Euro heights are lower at 81hrs over PA. Trend south continues.
-
The risk of no storm seems to be increasing with the Gem and Ukie basically saying as much and half of the Gefs members agreeing with them. That would actually be funny.
-
Ukie moved south, but weak pos.
-
-
Icon still north for southern half of the State, but it was a big jump south from 18z and prior runs.
-
0z Rgem slp located just north of where the Gfs had it at 18z. I think that's the closest any model has had it to the Gfs at that point.
-
Slow bleed south of the Eps at 18z.
-
Did you know the Icon has ensembles? As if we didn't have enough! Lol Anyway, the slp is about 6 hrs slower than 12z and mean slp location is south a bit of 13z and definitely a fair bit south of the operational. Here are 3 panels.
-
@Bubbler86 Gem depicts slowing on 18z (bottom) run vs 12z (top). Good sign of movement toward Gfs.
.gif.6755985d6cbb082e692eac66a9aa6bc3.gif)
-
18z will be out in an hour and a half and Eps in 2 and a half.
-
Gfs is great
-
Yep. And compare the 18z Rgem at 84hrs to 18z Nam at 84hrs then 12z Gem at 90hrs. Rgem much further west/south. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024020818&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2024020818&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024020812&fh=90&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
-
I recall seeing that years ago when the Euro was much better. But that is based on a forecast 5 days in advance. Which begs the question, how about 4.5 days which is where we are today. Or 3, or 2, etc. I don't know the answer, but it seems to explain how the Euro, or any other model, get beat by a lesser model.
-
Slowing is the key imho as I posted last night. Plenty of time to go either way, but day 4.5 most assuredly will not accurately represent the final outcome.
-
Even if he saw something that it was beating the Gfs, what period of time are we talking? Those ratings are done once a month, so unless there's some confirmation it's true and over what period of time, people should stop repeating it as gospel.
-
I saw Hoffman post that he read "somewhere " that it was ranked higher. He didn't say where he read it. Here's a link for ratings of the main models. The difference between Euro, Gem, Ukie, and Gfs is very small. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/acc_31days/
-
I suspected as much. Thanks
-
Eps may provide some hope as well.
-
Yep, and plenty of time.
-
