mitchnick

Nam was surprisingly good. It's holding on by a thread. Lol

Eps beyond Tuesday surprisingly encouraging. Shame I'm having a hard time putting much faith in them after 3 runs in a row they had me between 4.5-5" for next week then cut that in half within 60hrs of the event...and despite having a decent % odds of getting 4" or more too. When will they ever adjust the models to not be so snow crazy?

These models feel like trying to have a chess game on a ship in the middle of a hurricane. Pieces just keep on moving around all over the place.

I have found that SV map legend is off by 1 category so 4" is 2" on other sites, 6" is 4", etc.

Snow depth is all I can get for now. It's south. https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/pennsylvania/snow-depth-in/20240213-2100z.html

Ukie looks south, but Pivotal hasn't updated and Meteocentre.com only goes to 72hrs with limited info.

Do you wear a red cape and carry a pitchfork?

The Nam sucked because it was pushed south by the northern stream right before the best panel or 2. Rgem muscles the storm off the coast so fast the cold never gets involved. Global 12z modeling will be interesting to say the least.

And for comparison, this is the Rgem. Literally nothing for our forum and most of NE. I've never seen such a stark difference between these 2 models.

Bliz, I think the problem is the pattern is not the pattern advertised last week. If it was, there wouldn't be the concern.

Here's the main problem I have with posting only some of the maps. He posted a 5 day period off the Gefs that showed a decent 5h, below normal temps, and mean slp to our south. I checked to see how much qpf fell in south central PA during those 5 days and it was .7". But snowfall was only 2" at 10:1. So that means despite the favorable looking 5 day averages, only 28.5% fell as snow. But with mean temps below normal, it's assumed most is snow. I know you can't post every map every time, but by looking a little deeper it's around climo for February. Did anyone come away with that impression from those 3 maps alone?

Fwiw, and it ain't much, the 6z Eps had everything a touch SW of 0z and around 3 hours slower. Odds of 4" or more are reasonably decent and a little higher than 0z. Understand, I am posting this for afterwards to prove how they suck. Lol

Eps keep getting better for us Bubbler, but operational just chuckles at us.

Oh, I know. My point was his shenanigans wouldn't be possible if he didn't have something to hang his hat on. Not that he wouldn't still try, but the ensembles are both a sword and shield to him...using them to come up with his weenie fantasy storms and the reason why it's not his fault when he fails.

Honestly, the only thing I've read of him is what is posted on this site. But for the ensembles giving him the ammunition, he would be able to shoot his mouth off about great patterns.

6z Gfs gives me nothing. Euro and Gfs beyond next week show rain, if anything, in much of the subforum and despite supposedly great ensembles. And people wondered why I questioned that ridge extending south from the Nao block. It's not over, I know, but it's never as simple as so many in the MA thought. The ensembles just don't have the detail for the discreet issues. And when there looks to be an issue on them, or something does show up on them no matter how seemingly unimportant, assume it's a problem. Mby is supposed to be a better place for snow than my old diggs north of BWI, but it feels no different to me these past 5 winters.

Both ensemble means are higher than ops for me. But I haven't done well when that has happened this year. Too muiuch smoothing on the means.

18z Eps backed off 2/2" imby and dropped the chances of 4"+ to upper 40's% from lower 50's% Basically noise.

Ok. Since Blizvis out gettingvthe kids' mother drunk for later this evening, I'll give you my thoughts and maps. First map is surface weather at 90hrs. Lots of heavy snow. So how far back does the precip go at this point? Euro on Pivotal does not offer a sim radar, but you can get an idea with the visibity map, which is the 2nd map. Finally, Kuchere snowfall map at 90hrs with more to come. EDIT: Sorta Ninja'd by MAG

Definitely south. Bliz....take it away!!!!

18z Euro looks to be a little further south than 12z. Know shortly for certain.

If you use Kuchera, they will be closer to reality, though the back half of the snow would have decent ratios I would think.

Are the Gefs this bad vs other modeling or better? These maps are 10:1, so they would have to be shaved 20-30% I would guess. But still, they are agressive.

Should attached this close-up of uvv map the first time!

Look at the 700mb uvv's. Can't get any redder and they are ready to move in.