mitchnick

Gefs creeping precip/snow north as of 168hrs fwiw.

Explanation of why mid-late February-March has a shot. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59779-winter-202324-mediumlong-range-discussion/?do=findComment&comment=7185737

Doesn't scream snow, but does want to make me scream!

Actually, this started out as a threat on the Euro when it showed a traditional Carolina Crusher. If it is going to crush someone, I think it still favors the Carolinas.

Iow, we don't have a shot. Agreed. Lol

Nothing to get it north. 500mb has a closed low that's stuck keeping slp stalled in the SE until the NE gyre (thanks Larry Cosgrove) pulls out and lets it escape to the east.

Yep. From the start, but hopefully not to the finish. Not that I have anything against the people of Finland.

Odd 78/79-La Nada 77/78-weak Nino 95/96-weak Nina

I don't disagree completely, but in this case, the pattern represented by a -PDO does fit our pattern in the mean this winter.

I believe our nemesis this year has been the consistent -PDO. Just about every other strong Niño, if not all, had averaged a +PDO. In fact, those that were negative at the start of winter, switched to positive. It explains the reluctance of the trough to leave the SW and the consistent -PNA. I know the extended ensembles show a +PNA, but with the reluctance of the trough to migrate east, it hard for me to believe the PNA goes + as long as the -PDO is maintained.

Same time.

360hrs Eps, which puts us at 2/12 7pm. Little, if any, progress to my eyes. Surface map suggests a front is in the middle of the country with slp in or approaching the Lakes with AN surface and 850 temps the easter half of the US. Assuming these maps are correct, how many days before temps drop and we get a system? And we will need temps decently BN since we'll be around 3 weeks past lowest averages. These are not weenie whinings, but legit questions based on what the Eps is showing that I believe contradicts the picture painted by the Eps Extended the week starting 2/12 that came out yesterday. Again, assuming it is correct, after the 12th you'd need another several days at least for cold to become established along with a favorable storm track development putting you around the 17th-19th, assuming again you get a storm to develop and track. At the 19th, you are 10 days from March. My point? 2 weeks from today wasted ("yes", I've written off 2/5 as a snowstorm) and likely another week after that IF we're lucky and get a storm that develops and falls as snow. What's the definition of insanity again? Lol

Never done that before. Lol

It's ok, little boy. Take your trophy anyway. Lol

I have a similar total to MDT, but January has had 1 great week and 1 snow to rain event with varying results. I rate a winter by winter weeks vs months. So with 9 weeks of met winter (Dec & Jan), I see 8 or 9 days as great, making it a lousy winter in my book. I won't talk temps for fear of triggering certain posters. Lol But I appreciate your positive attitude. I keep one as well until I reach a point when I think it's unreasonable to think positively. As I said, my gut says to toss it but medium range modeling says otherwise, so I'm not folding yet. But I am at the point of show me something concrete because I'm tired of idle threats. That means, assuming 2/5 doesn't work, we better be tracking at least 1 legit threat come 2/10 or I'll be calling bs on these great patterns.

Idk if ur referring to me, but feelings have not one effing thing to do with it for me. This winter has sucked and unlike prior mod or strong Niños that did produce big in Feb, it has not produced early in the season like 82/83 and 02/03. It might, and it might not because even if we get those advertised patterns to materialize, that's no guarantee of snow. Chances? Probably, but not snowfall.

I saw your post in the MA forum regarding the trough in the east on the extended Eps at 384hrs or 2/12. That was from the 0z run. Here's my problem/concern. Top is the 360hr map of the Eps off the 0z run (which is 2/13 0z) and the bottom map is 360hr off today's 12z (2/13 12z). The d@mn trough at 12z backed up from 0z and it's 12 hours later. That makes that weekly map starting 2/12 that you posted highly suspect in my mind. Any thoughts other than the trough moves eastward real fast between 360 and 384 when it's been stuck in the SW for almost a week?

My gut says it's just another year of fails and nothing says otherwise and despite the weeklies. But since we do have the weeklies, I'm holding off until the level of internal disgust reaches a point of no return. Lol Well, we do have more than the weeklies I suppose if willing to give the Cfs any value. EDIT: I should add that the Cfs does look to place the best results just to the south and eastvof PA.

It has to figure a way to make sure we don't get snow. The only thing stoppjng me from throwing in the towel are the weeklies, but my gut says we're screwed.

I thought they split, but since I don't watch them or care, it doesn't surprise me. They have had problems beating Pitt for years regardless of the players on the team.

The city is filled with criminals from the mayors to the police chiefs and city council. The old Mayor, Sheila Dixon, who was criminally convicted of stealing gift cards is likely to run again. The last I heard she was leading in the polls.

As usual, the Ravens are a stupid team whose stupidity shines in playoff games because they are playing quality teams.

Lol. I don't have any recollection of what the Eps showed tbh. But Eps look like Gefs and Geps on this "threat", sooo...

Eps says Euro operational was right...not even close miss.

Fyi, Geps say its parent Ggem is crazy.