mitchnick

First, I don't get the individual members with Pivotal package. But I had this long response almost finished, but in lieu of that, I simply find the ensembles of little value because they can't nail down a forecast at range and once within 48 hrs, operationals make more sense with their higher resolution. Blend of models is the better option to ensembles imho because it uses higher resolution solutions in deteriming an average forecast, but it's slow to update and has too much stale data that works to defeat its accuracy. But I appreciate your post.

Clearly, the know-it-alls that claimed the higher water vapor thanks to the volcano erruption would result in a strong pv were wrong by a magnitude of 10. That was all I heard about this past fall it seems next to the Niño.

It's a quick way to show the results from run to run changes. Lot quicker than showing a bunch of maps and explaining what the changes would mean especially since the real question is "how much snow." Plus its 5-6 days away so we can expect subtle differences to continue. But that's just my $00.02 opinion.

In 24 hours, Eps went from the top map to the bottom one. Remind me again what use the ensembles are. And we're supposed to believe the Extended Eps? Lol

Just about had it with these illusions of threats.

Got a real ear for music, ehh? Lol I've been playing the guitar for 51 years and many songs I learned to play I have no idea of the lyrics except for the refrain, chorus or title.

The sad fact is that its 11+ days away and we just saw what happened to our Monday/Tuesday threat in less than 36 hrs. Hard to get excited this far out

Ukie is way north with next week.

3 runs in a row on the Gfs

6z Eps north...way north from 0z.

Ukie is a huge hit. This is snow depth because they don't offer snowfall for some odd reason.

I looked at everything before coming in here and knew Bliz would be busy. Buckle up my friend, you've got a lot of work ahead of you this week and hopefully beyond!

I could never be that accomplished.

I never had any goals in life, except to finish my paper route on time.

They are pretty crazy. Better if we got the pattern earlier, but better late than never. Just better snow and not just get cold and dry. That would stink.

Lol. Ok

I just look at snowfall maps. At 7pm Monday, the snow is to our west with no accumulations. At 1AM on Tuesday, there is some snowfall accumulations. That's good for my purposes.

I know. Eps are showing mean snowfall period would be between Monday evening to Tuesday.

Perfect timing for me. I'm loving it.

He!! Yeah it is! End of the run gives some hope too.

Yep. Figured that would happen once the Euro was showing a closed low in Texas. Closed 5H lows along or near the Gulf never come north unless you have northern stream energy at the perfect spot pulling them north. Much better odds with an open 5H low. Of course, once to WVA or Western VA and to our south, close em' on up and we'll rock.

Ukie has next week a wound up rainstorm centered in western TN Monday 12z fwiw. But Ukie's always drunk at this range.

12z Gefs looks good for next week.

Canadian is a hit from state College north. Rain for PA south, but at least there is precip.

Icon looks ready to go boom past 180hrs on 12z run.