mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Some days, that smell from the paper mill in Spring Grove can make it a long way.
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Euro seemingly folding to the Gfs but without the closed low over MD, which is what gives most of PA its snow. If the Gfs loses the closed low (like the Gefs), we're toast on the snow. Still time, but this event has been a longshot all along for goof reason.
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6z Euro is basically rain for all despite some mix or snow in higher elevations. It even pulls the plug on high totals in NE.
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Yep, but literally no ensemble support. But I don't think any of the models have really figured it out. I was surprised to see the Eps 0z run pulled back from snowfall amounts in NE from its 18z run. Sorta expected to see it increase snowfall waiving bye-bye to our chances.
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I'll take the 6z Gfs and call it a month. 6z Nam looks interesting, but more for my northern...friends? Lol
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Nam is a mess. Looks more like the Gfs.
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Yep, and then deepen off the coast like the 12z.
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Just short on cold air as we all knew.
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Bliz, I also noticed that High pressure in Canada was weaker at 1030 vs 1033 at 12z.
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Ninja'd
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Eps a touch further north. Looks like the stronger system pulled in some warm weather.
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I like the 18z Euro. It's a tad deeper with the slp that is headed from W NC to the Obx based on isobars and the 5h vort is near identical to 12z. Hopefully the Eps reflect an improvement, but not guarantees of course.
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It's right when it's the only one that says no.
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None of the 18z runs strike me as moving toward the Euro unfortunately. I was hoping to see that be the case. That said, 18z GGEM did come in slightly better with the slp a bit stronger than its 12z run, but that's likely inconsequential.
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Gfs is still trying to figure it out. It would be a better model if the Euro came out before it.
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You're going to make me watch movies now to figure out a forecast? This is too hard.
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Fwiw, today's Euro weeklies continue to look as good, if not a hair better, imho.
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That's an old pic!
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I never heard of Elliott before coming to this forum. I know he's out of MU, but what is he? Professor, student assistant?
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What I don't get is why the change in the forecast today. I check every model's MJO forecast every day. They have not suddenly changed. If anything, they have moved the MJO wave faster toward the good phases in the last week than progged, which is good for us. But definitely the phase 7 forecast has been in the cards for over a week. Strange. I think he just got a look at the 12z ensembles and just didn't say it.
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That said, the 12z ensembles are can kicking by holding onto the ridging in the east. At this point, who the he!! knows what modeling will show anymore.
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If you go to this link, which is MJO phases in El Niños, Phase 7 in February is not warm in the east. There is a trough along the southern Conus, just like what long range modeling is showing; I've attached the image. I don't know where he got that. Maybe he's looking at all Enso phase average instead of Niños. https://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html
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Eps upping totals too.
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I hope we can sneak something in over the next 15 days, even a mixed or slop event. Folks up north/west of mby have a better chance with pressing surface Highs being advertised. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59789-central-pa-winter-2324/?do=findComment&comment=7170195
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No, I said I hoped we could steal one and also said this was our only shot to steal one and I would stick with it thinking it wouid come south.
