mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Yeah, that 12z run was over amped liked I thought. Nothing else had the slp going to our west. Still time to pull this one out of the jaws of defeat.
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Has the ridging in Canada and troughing along the south similar to weeklies. It's bringing it forward, if true.
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Oh yeah. Way inland...as in Ohio. Lol Looks more like one of those early season storms. Probably overamped Euro again.
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Much stronger closed 5h this run. Inland maybe? We'll see shortly.
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Heights along the east coast are higher this run than 0z a couple days before the weekend threat. Don't know if they will recover.
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What do you do if you don't mind me asking?
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Classis mod to strong Niño snowstorm at the end of the 12z Gfs. Beautiful fantasy.
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Gfs a hit for many except far southern tier.
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Actually, I screwed up. That's the Euro MJO forecast. Gfs kills the MJO and puts it in the COD, which could also explain it.
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So why is the Gfs operational looking so much colder with the 0z and 6z runs? Could be its MJO prediction that now gets us into Phase 7, which puts troughiness in the east. By the way, here's a link to MJO phases during El Niños. https://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html
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Ultimately, Dca/Bwi will be the jackpot. Lol
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Euro next weekend. 10:1 & Kuchera, the lesser of the 2 in light of marginal temps.
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Definitely a longshot, but it's the only thing in the foreseeable future.
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That would have added 2 days above 2 and 2 days to the period. Either way, it would be the weakest of all Supers, but I think we all knew that. Lol
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Need it to slow a bit and deepen to generate some colder air. This is weak and flying along.
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12z Ukie looks like it might bring the storm far enough north to hit us, but temps are an issue, of course. Ukie only goes out 144hrs, so I can't say for sure. But it's a decent 5h look which I've linked. I also link a loop of the 6hr precip maps. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=500h_anom&rh=2024012112&fh=144&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=qpf_006h-imp&rh=2024012112&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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Reviewing the Oisst graph, the first day Enso 3.4 was at or greater than +2.0 was on November 20 and the last day was January 5. During that 47 day period, it was at or above +2.0 only 32 days, with highest reading of approximately +2.17 on November 25. Of the 32 days above +2.0, only 11 were at or above +2.10. I don't know if it makes it to the Super category, but if it does, it's the bastard child of the bunch.
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Upper level trough
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Eps is a big OUCH! 1/2" snowfall for 360 hours that includes prime snowfall climo. Extended Eps as of yesterday put a trough in the SE in the mean the week starting 2/12. Gotta hope that's right.
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Today's blowing and drifting snow is reminiscent of not so recent years gone by.
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That's flat-out unfair. Lol
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This run of the Gfs and Gefs lost their luster for it. Signal not as good looking on the Gefs, but they move around like the operational.
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J/k np
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I resemble that remark.
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Like I said, i hope we can steal one because the pattern sux. But a slow moving, closed u/l low that changes from rain to snow is the perfect spring snowstorm scenario.
