mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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18z HRRR pretty good starting 10 miles north of me....lol Still around 2.5" here, but some 4"+ to the north. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024011718&fh=48&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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Yeah, but nobody's been able to figure out the results of SSW event. Any predictions are better labeled guesses. In any event, we'll know by the end of the month, give or take. Just wish we could "steal" an event between now and the end of the month, but I doubt we'll be that lucky.
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We're at a peak in the solar cycle, which adds to the sun's heating efficiency.
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SSW events are not voodoo. They really do occur. Predicting the results, if any, of SSW events to the weather at any particular location(s) is voodoo imho.
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Yep. It can overcome a lousy MJO sometimes too if it comes on our side, but hopefully we get the combo.
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Sudden Stratospheric Warming event ocurring today. No guarantees the cold comes on our side of the Pole, but if it does, February into March will be sweet and white. Normally takes 15-20 days on average before we see it translate to the troposphere, so we'll know then who the winter benefactors in the Northern Hemisphere are. Keep your fingers crossed...eyes too if you want to make driving fun.
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If ever you wonder why I whine so much, keep this picture in your mind. Composite radar off the Nam. That hole with barely any echoes is literally right over my house and snowfall total map reflects it as well. Which begs the question...why did I stop drinking?
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You may be right, but there's a lot of open field before you get to the quarry, which is what gives me some pause on that theory.
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Think I'd like it a little further south....50 miles or so.
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Depending on where max area sets up, it's either a 1-3" or 2-4" event at this point. Wild card is how much interaction between departing coastal and u/l low. Rgem and Icon have precip getting sucked westward by the u/l, hence the 4-5" accumulations. Still need to wait to see what modeling consensus goes with.
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We might have a problem with atmospheric memory on Friday as in the heaviest stuff may fall to our south. You can see it in the Eps and Gfs that they want to jackpot the same area as today. Canadians favor PA. To early to say for certain.
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Whenever the ensemble mean is more than the operational, operational is probably too low. Not that there's a huge difference, but the ensemble mean is definitely better than operational using Pivotal. Weatherbell maps are always higher.
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18z Eps snowfall mean
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It's probably my cheap azz thermometer that has me a bit warmer. Plus, it hangs off a porch post around 6' off the ground and 6' from the house.
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Cooking potato chips 24/7.
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18.9 now. City living. 13 not too far away from me on Wunderground? But a lot of 16 and 17.
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I'm at 19 and 12 miles west of the airport, meaning the cold air got here first. I guess I'm having a hard time buying that reading. Couple of degrees, sure. But 5?
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14 at York Airport at 7pm. Whaa?
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Lawyers' kids have to eat too you know.
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18z Ggem holds. Most of southern half of PA in the light green or .4-.59" qpf. Additionally, all modeling is showing Kuchera ratios greater than 10:1, so that more likely than not equates to a 4-8" snowfall range verbatim.
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Yeah. Just another disappointment. Lol Actually, I'm fine with it. It covered the grass, looks beautiful, and didn't interfere with travel. Plus, we've got Friday, then shut the blinds until the last days of January or start of February. Seems like that's when the cold returns after the warmup that starts Monday.
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Sw'ly flow in front of the arctic front maybe.
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I'm hoping the Euro would join the Icon and Canadian twins for Friday.
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Ended at 3.5". When I went to be at 1:30, it looked like 5" was doable, but things crapped out around 3am.
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Lt to mod snow restarted with approaching arctic front.
