mitchnick

Why don't you just have the kahunas to quote my post since you're talking to me instead of some wishy-washy post couched to try to make it look like you're not? We have different climos. My concerns and your concerns are at odds since you probably need me to rain 90% of the time for you to get snow. You should be rejoicing when I get rain. Lol It is what it is. And I'm not moving simply for a few snow days out of the year just like you're not moving for different weather. I can deal with the different climo issues with people in the same forum. You're not going to hurt my feelings.

As I suggested in my first post, my concern is that it continues to shift west. In fact, you may recall my post yesterday that the Ukie was way west. Last night's run, though further east, is still far enough west that it's a rainstorm all along the east coast and Appalachians. I'm telling you, it is tough to beat seasonal trends. Generally, I believe until you get a storm to break the trend, assume it holds. Modeling had this storm as the one to break the trend. Maybe it will, but it's looking now that it is far from a lock.

6z Gfs says seasonal trend begins. Right now, that's good...but how long will it continue?

Icon has snow to rain imby. Out west, probably borderline snow. Too similar to this past weekend.

Icon has a bigger system. Not at the end of tte run, but it is warmer than Euro.

12z v 18z. Also, the 500mb vort is more positively tilted, which explains the storm further off the coast. Don't get me wrong, I'm happy there's a decent signal, but I'm just analyzing the run to prior run.

There are good posters there, but I prefer less drama and smaller group. We all read that forum and others, and although the run is similar to 12z as was stated there, it's around 1/2 the qpf and snowfall per snowfall map.

18z Eps. Despite what you may read in the MA forum, although it still has the Monday storm, it is weaker and a bit more out to sea. Precip maps for comparison. All snow by the way. Possibly slower, but not based on slp location.

18z Icon looking a lot like 6z than 12z, so it's warmer, but not quite as warm as 6z.

Slightly different. 24 hrs ending 162hrs. It removes stray stuff befotlre.

Eps snowfall mean for next week...buckle up. Years since I've seen Eps that good 6 days out. And that's 10:1. Snowfall maps on the operational were better with Kuchera.

The 1/20 event on the Euro has upside potential too.

We got the colder solution on the Euro I said we needed thankfully. Let's hope we don't lose the look.

Euro still colder thru 120.

It's goofy. But that's typical for the Ukie. How it scores 2nd to Euro is beyond me. Of course, how the Euro scores best is equally beyond me sometimes. Lol

Euro more surpressed heights at 105 hrs vs 117hrs on 0z.

Good thing is that 500mb map is unique to the Ukie. No other model has the trough out west with a ridge on the east coast.

There is, but look at the 500mb map. It would head north from there. EDIT: Could go out to sea and then another low form further west.

Ukie looks to be a cutter in case nobody checked.

A short one.

Saw that. Exactly what we need to see. Driving so can't look at anything much.

Hate to say it, but the 6z Icon came west too with the cold boundary. Idk, just thinking we're kidding ourselves to think that this thing won't end up going into the lakes, or at least far enough inland for us to fail again. Seasonal trends are a biatch when they're againt you, and it goes without saying they are against us. If we keep getting ticks west today, it's hard to think otherwise imho. If we see things changing for the colder, we might have a chance.

6z Eps has a slighly deeper slp and closer to the coast vs 0z. With thst comes sloghtly warmer 850's. What does it mean? I'd like to think it's good, but I doubt it. Lol

I'm from the Baltimore metro area and married a woman from Baltimore City 38 years ago. My daughter and her husband live in Baltimore City now by choice. So I'm not surprised to hear you say that.

On another note. Idk if anyone has bothered to look at Enso forecasts for next winter, but this is the Canadian and the Cfs is similar. That's one cold equator. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2024010100&fh=11