mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Dang, Nam looks a lot better at 30 hrs....famous last words.
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That's typical down there, honestly.
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I was looking in the MA forum and there are a few forecast maps posted from tv mets and Nws. I know some will disagree, but from what I've seen, they are all too high. It's my humble opinion that because the Monday storm produced on the high side of forecasts, especially in the DC/BALT area, mets are going on the high side for this event. I saw the those local tv mets down there do it when I lived there for 60+ years just like they always liked to lowball early season minor events.
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Eps snowfall map improved too. 12z Eps snowfall on top 18z on bottom
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Nobody's perfect! Lol
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Speaking of snowfall maps, 18z Euro. Lol
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Personally, I love the snowfall maps. Sure, they're often inaccurate, but so are the forecasts and most of us know that there's no guarantee as to their accuracy. But I get what you're saying.
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They've always been consistent with Ncep and Tt. But I think there may be another explanation. Your maps say 3k HRRR while Pivotal don't. That may be the reason.
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I just noticed as well that the Wxbell depiction of the conditions at 48hrs is way overdone vs Pivotal. Check out Pivotal's surface up top and radar returns on the bottom link. That's crazy different from Wxbell. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2024011718&fh=48&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=refcmp&rh=2024011718&fh=48&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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I'd take that, but the Wxbell maps are inflated, as usual, as Pivotal shows York Airport at 2.8" instead of 3.3".
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18z Canadian HRDPS a little better. Top link is snow qpf and bottom link shows it's still snowing end of run. https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/precipitation-accumulation.php?mod=cmc_hrdps&run=18&type=SN&hi=000&hf=084&mode=latest&lang=en&map=qc https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrdps®ion=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2024011718&fh=48
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Yeah. I saw my Nws forecast of 2-4" and thought exactly as you said. Oddly, for 2 days they said 1-2" and then changed it sometime this afternoon. I think they should have left it alone.
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Drying process continues with the 18z Ggem. Max qpf of dark blue area is .2-.299".
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We better get at least a couple inches because from what I'm seeing today, I'll be surprised if we get a legit threat again before the 2nd week of February.
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?
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Vort pass is moving north. I saw that on the Srefs last 2 runs and thought they may be out to lunch, but at least the Nam twins are moving toward them.
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3k Nam looks like the srefs past 2 runs. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024011718&fh=58&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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Looking at snowfall maps is disappointing unfortunately.
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Nam is looking to have more coastal interraction. Jackpot looking north similar to HRRR.
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18z HRRR pretty good starting 10 miles north of me....lol Still around 2.5" here, but some 4"+ to the north. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024011718&fh=48&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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Yeah, but nobody's been able to figure out the results of SSW event. Any predictions are better labeled guesses. In any event, we'll know by the end of the month, give or take. Just wish we could "steal" an event between now and the end of the month, but I doubt we'll be that lucky.
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We're at a peak in the solar cycle, which adds to the sun's heating efficiency.
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SSW events are not voodoo. They really do occur. Predicting the results, if any, of SSW events to the weather at any particular location(s) is voodoo imho.
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Yep. It can overcome a lousy MJO sometimes too if it comes on our side, but hopefully we get the combo.
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Sudden Stratospheric Warming event ocurring today. No guarantees the cold comes on our side of the Pole, but if it does, February into March will be sweet and white. Normally takes 15-20 days on average before we see it translate to the troposphere, so we'll know then who the winter benefactors in the Northern Hemisphere are. Keep your fingers crossed...eyes too if you want to make driving fun.
