mitchnick

I would think that cluster will be generating some wind.

Neighbor's 40' spruce tree just came down on his 2022 BMW X5. Blew out the back window and did some body and roof damage. It wasn't a direct hit or it would have been toast...or maybe a pancake.

I could live with that, but there are a lot of ensemble members to our NW. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59919-jan-mediumlong-range-disco-2-total-obliteration-is-coming/?do=findComment&comment=7133887

Icon now giving us snow next week. Very 6z Gfs'esq. We're basically on the cold side of the boundary that results in overrunning. It'll changeat 0z, so...

Same here. I've been on the wrong side this week.

Anything that's falling here, and it's not much, is wet.

6z Euro fwiw

Just another...

6z Gfs jumping on board with Euro partially. Not a Hecs, but not far away from that.

Can't even remember seeing an Eps snowfall map a week out that looked like this. Idk, to go from 12z to this 12 hrs later...proceed with caution.

In Euro we pray. The ultimate weenie false idol.

We all want as much snow as possible. Regardless, I have no qualms discussing when things look bad or good. If things are going bad, I have no desire to look intoxicated pimping a storm that has no shot since I can do a fine job looking stupid posting about legit chances. In one of life's best eye opening lessons stated to me by my late uncle (God rest his soul), "...with the cream comes the cr@p." That pretty much sums up this hobby for snow lovers outside of climatologically favored snow regions of this earth.

I just realized when I posted this, I was thinking MLK was the following Monday, 1/22. So replace "Mlk" with 1/22. Sorry

If there's one thing for certain, the model depictions for the 16/17th today will not be reality on the 16/17th. So we got that going for us.

I was just talking about today's run. Mlk is a problem since we go into the unfavorable MJO phases on or about the 13th. I think by Mlk we fight the MJO. Hopefully, it passes fast into 7, but MJO forecasts stink. In any event, if we miss next week, I think it's a while before anything legit pops up. Jmho as much as I wish it wasn't.

12z Gefs had, for that far away, a decent signal. As we know, the operational is just another ensemble member essentially, so it will be all over the place. What bugs me is how all the ingredients are there but to get us to score, is beyond thread the needle difficult. But hope springs eternal....until the spring breaks.

I think it's fair to say most are here for the snow. Even with that general forecast that matches strong Niños, many of those Niños had snow during warm months. I think it’s also fair to say that decent winter show themselves by now taking into consideration the date and forecasts for the next 10 days. If we're honest, this winter fails to have any characteristics of a decent/snowy winter. Using Bwi as my benchmark, if we/they fail the rest of January, which I would define as 2":or less for them and 4" or less here, we're looking at 94/95 and 97/98 as a viable strong Niño options. I'll stop right there.

I was wondering when you would get to that. Lol Geps and Gefs both have a weak, if there is such a thing, split.

There are more cutters on today's model runs than at a f@rt festival.

Less flooding, Noah...sorry.

You may have a legit shot for the event on the 16 or 17, but I put my odds of seeing a 4"+ event (with or without a mix or change to rain) at 20% tops. I can see the writing on the wall based on prior years of following winter wx in the area, 1972-present. January is looking like a whole lot of threats and not a lot of substantial hits, if any; how I hope I'm wrong. February may be different, but it's too early to say.

Euro is as bad as the rest in the medium range. Top is 0z and bottom is 12z. That is horrific performance by allegedly the best model on earth.

At 162 hrs, Euro looks more like the 12z Gfs than the 0z Euro at 174hrs. I'll assume that's not good until the rest of the run proves otherwise.

Gfs operational looks like doo-doo, but there's a decent Gefs signal for the storm the Euro showed on 0z run. 24hr snowfall attached. Of course, the way things have gone over the last 2 years, Euro will probably pull it on 12z. Lol

Hope you like cold and dry.