mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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18z Nam looking a little jucier at 42hrs vs 12z.
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Mine as well
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This fantasy storm is better than that due to ratios. Kuchera
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Too many short waves and a monster tpv.
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Meh....Icon a fail but close.
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Icon looking very Nam'ish thru 78. Money shots will come, if at all, afterwards.
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Rgem https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024011300&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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It's starting from basically brown ground unfortunately despite a day of intermittent light snows.
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Seems the only way this thing works is for the initial wave to trigger slp. It's a risk because of the threat of warmer temps. That's what the 18z Icon did and Nam looks similar.
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Agree. Similar results as Gem 12z I would guess.
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This is a link to the Rgem extended. It goes out 120 hours. You have to click the "animate" button on the left side of the page. https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html
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18z Ggem surface map very close to 12z, which is on top. Link below if you want to explore more maps. https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=cmc_gdps&run=18&stn=PT&hh=090&map=na&stn2=PT&run2=12&mod2=cmc_gdps&hh2=090&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
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So which is the worse model? The model that 1st picked up on a storm idea, then after a few runs with a storm, shiws a weak pos? Or the models that picked up on the storm a day later then loses the storm the day after the model that first picked up on a storm idea? Because that is the way it looks "now." It could change, of coirse, but which models remains the question. I think none is any better or worse than the other.
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Ughh Gfs
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Idk about anyone else, but I sure wish we had more models to analyze.
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You may be right, but I'd consider it a win either way. But I do think the Rgem would have come thru for us too. Very similar to Gem. I'll have the 18z Gem in an hour or less for comparison.
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Icon
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18z Nam, Rgem and especially Icon nice.
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Posted earlier, but remember it's slow to change because a lot of info is prior cycle model runs, but not all.
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Euro looks big for the 20th.
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Let's see what the Euro has for the 20th. Probably a blizzard only to pull it back to a dusting-1" 3 or 4 runs later. Nah, it never does that kind of cr@p.
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I lost one the year before and it wasn't even that cold in 21/22. Crummy late 70's houses.
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Do you have a legend? And that sorta looks like the 0z precip signature, I don't know.
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No Kuchera available on Pivotal.
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Actually, on second look, Ukie is warm and spits out around .75" of qpf. Problem is it's all wound up with a 995 slp in NJ, so it shows rain in addition to snow. It's second to Euro in scoring, so I'll be shocked if the Euro doesn't come around to a storm idea, and hopefully not too wound up.
