mitchnick

Re next week, I don't like that 850 temps on the ensemble mean jumped 2C at 144hrs on the 18z v 150hrs on 12z. There were a lot of hits on the 12z to our n&w, so it certainly strikes me that had it gone out further, I don't think we would like it. But hopefully that was an inconsequential blip and not the start of another warming trend...God help me.

Windy here. But rains over and wind is nothing special now.

Dating girls from Baltimore can do that to you.

Where's your post? I'm in the mood to be offended and blame all of life's problems on offensive people. Lol

My daughter was 4 and tall for her age and was just above the 48" mark. I took her on the Loch Ness Monster for her 1st roller coaster ride. There was no line, so we stayed on 2 more times. From that point on, she was hooked on roller coasters. She takes her kids on the kiddie ones now and she says she feels sick. Lol Payback for all the times I had to take her on that stupid spaceship ride in Dutch Wonderland near the front of the park on the left as you enter. That thing just about killed me having to get on it and stay on it if there wasn't a line. Idk if it's still there now.

Port Royal, Va at Rts. 3 and 17, my favorite route to Williamsburg, has a tornado. Time sensitive. https://www.marylandwx.com/radar/klwxstate_br.php

That area headed right for us from VA/MD means bidness.

I had .5" at 1pm. I'll mosey on out tomorrow to see what the total is. Otherwise, this weather sux.

18z isn't that far out. Only to 186 or so

I would think that cluster will be generating some wind.

Neighbor's 40' spruce tree just came down on his 2022 BMW X5. Blew out the back window and did some body and roof damage. It wasn't a direct hit or it would have been toast...or maybe a pancake.

I could live with that, but there are a lot of ensemble members to our NW. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59919-jan-mediumlong-range-disco-2-total-obliteration-is-coming/?do=findComment&comment=7133887

Icon now giving us snow next week. Very 6z Gfs'esq. We're basically on the cold side of the boundary that results in overrunning. It'll changeat 0z, so...

Same here. I've been on the wrong side this week.

Anything that's falling here, and it's not much, is wet.

6z Euro fwiw

Just another...

6z Gfs jumping on board with Euro partially. Not a Hecs, but not far away from that.

Can't even remember seeing an Eps snowfall map a week out that looked like this. Idk, to go from 12z to this 12 hrs later...proceed with caution.

In Euro we pray. The ultimate weenie false idol.

We all want as much snow as possible. Regardless, I have no qualms discussing when things look bad or good. If things are going bad, I have no desire to look intoxicated pimping a storm that has no shot since I can do a fine job looking stupid posting about legit chances. In one of life's best eye opening lessons stated to me by my late uncle (God rest his soul), "...with the cream comes the cr@p." That pretty much sums up this hobby for snow lovers outside of climatologically favored snow regions of this earth.

I just realized when I posted this, I was thinking MLK was the following Monday, 1/22. So replace "Mlk" with 1/22. Sorry

If there's one thing for certain, the model depictions for the 16/17th today will not be reality on the 16/17th. So we got that going for us.

I was just talking about today's run. Mlk is a problem since we go into the unfavorable MJO phases on or about the 13th. I think by Mlk we fight the MJO. Hopefully, it passes fast into 7, but MJO forecasts stink. In any event, if we miss next week, I think it's a while before anything legit pops up. Jmho as much as I wish it wasn't.

12z Gefs had, for that far away, a decent signal. As we know, the operational is just another ensemble member essentially, so it will be all over the place. What bugs me is how all the ingredients are there but to get us to score, is beyond thread the needle difficult. But hope springs eternal....until the spring breaks.