mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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0z Rgem slp located just north of where the Gfs had it at 18z. I think that's the closest any model has had it to the Gfs at that point.
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Slow bleed south of the Eps at 18z.
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Did you know the Icon has ensembles? As if we didn't have enough! Lol Anyway, the slp is about 6 hrs slower than 12z and mean slp location is south a bit of 13z and definitely a fair bit south of the operational. Here are 3 panels.
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@Bubbler86 Gem depicts slowing on 18z (bottom) run vs 12z (top). Good sign of movement toward Gfs.
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18z will be out in an hour and a half and Eps in 2 and a half.
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Gfs is great
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Yep. And compare the 18z Rgem at 84hrs to 18z Nam at 84hrs then 12z Gem at 90hrs. Rgem much further west/south. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024020818&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2024020818&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024020812&fh=90&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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I recall seeing that years ago when the Euro was much better. But that is based on a forecast 5 days in advance. Which begs the question, how about 4.5 days which is where we are today. Or 3, or 2, etc. I don't know the answer, but it seems to explain how the Euro, or any other model, get beat by a lesser model.
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Slowing is the key imho as I posted last night. Plenty of time to go either way, but day 4.5 most assuredly will not accurately represent the final outcome.
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Even if he saw something that it was beating the Gfs, what period of time are we talking? Those ratings are done once a month, so unless there's some confirmation it's true and over what period of time, people should stop repeating it as gospel.
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I saw Hoffman post that he read "somewhere " that it was ranked higher. He didn't say where he read it. Here's a link for ratings of the main models. The difference between Euro, Gem, Ukie, and Gfs is very small. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/acc_31days/
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I suspected as much. Thanks
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Eps may provide some hope as well.
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Yep, and plenty of time.
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Gefs mean
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Ukie LOLOL
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Canadian has no precip or storm in the SE US at 240hrs. Lol
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Looks to be suppressed at 240hrs.
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Oy, There's cold but maybe too much of a press.
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Gfs looking to move back to its look for PD when it had the 3 in a row snows. Too early to say if cold gets here on time.
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Icon ain't smoking what Gfs did overnight.
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Yep. End of the world can't come quick enough in my book.
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Unfortunately, it's not warm enough. I hope temps rise 2C every year. And I'm doing all I can to see to it...old gas lawn mower that smokes like chimney, oil for heat that leaves that nice smell in the neighborhood, gas appliances.
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Meh, math is easy when you put dollar signs in front.
