I know, but staying at or below projected highs says the airmass is a bit cooler. We need every bit we can get and I'm just happy that it's cooler than warmer.
Judging from surface temps, things seem to be on the cooler side here in the MA. I'll be surprised if 18z modeks start coming in warmer than 12z, but stranger things have certainly happened.
I posted about this earlier in the week. All the southern systems since October have been prolific qpf producers. I just don't buy any model that says this time will be different.
I still like my 4-8" call for most of the forum from earlier this week. In fact, for mby I can just about guarantee you that I will measure at least 4".
I've never thought much of the HRRR, but with support from the Euro and 6z Nam, it can't be ignored unfortunately. Otoh, the Nam starts shortly with maybe some hope.