mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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...and sweating bullets.
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Lol Gefs
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Ukie rain next week....ughhh. Where were you in the summer?
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No! I said Ukoe....the Hawaiian model.
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Ukoe held imby. Driving so can't post more.
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Yep...biblical
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Looks like kuchie has me in the 5-5.5" range. I'll take it.
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I'm at 600', but on the north side of town, for however that helps.
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I'm right on the edge too.
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Bigtime hold
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3k. Not quite over but mix south and east by then.
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Nah, 2nd batch dried up down here at least.
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I'll take the Nam. I think we get a second batch from the trailing vort. Probably no accumulations however.
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In my pre-event pity party I'm preparing for myself on Sunday if necessary, I was looking at modeling for next week. 6z Eps have over 1" of rain between the hours of 120-144, and it's not over. So at least it's comforting to know that by Wednesday morning, the ground will be brown and sogged regardless of whether 12" or 1.2" of snow falls over the weekend.
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When there's no hope on the globals.
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I saw the 10 day Euro and honestly thought the same thing. Then I remembered the forecasts for this weekend over the past 2 days...
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Looks like 6z Eps increased slightly snowfall south and east of Harrisburg. Not by much, but a little nonetheless. Beats a decrease!
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Well new Cansips has a great January. I just wish MR modeling would cooperate because they're showing nothing but lake cutters.
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Yep. We need either cold air or heavy rates from strong vertical velocities which will cool the column. Light precip will not do the trick. So when looking at modeling, I'm going right to qpf because anything under .9", maybe .8", will work. Mt. Holly Springs on north imho would probaby be all snow despite qpf, but that could be wrong in 24 hrs or less.
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If we don't stop the bleeding today, preferably reverse direction, I'm toast. I recall discussions at easternwx years ago that the reason for slow north drifts was because modeling incorrectly forecasted the strength of blocking/high pressure to our N/NE. If that was, in fact, the problem, they haven't fixed it yet.
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Icon at 69 hrs https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2024010400&fh=69
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Rgem held imby thank God.
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I looked at Pivotal. Hmmmm....that's good news.
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Real test is up shortly with Rgem. Will it hold?
