mitchnick

6z Euro fwiw

Just another...

6z Gfs jumping on board with Euro partially. Not a Hecs, but not far away from that.

Can't even remember seeing an Eps snowfall map a week out that looked like this. Idk, to go from 12z to this 12 hrs later...proceed with caution.

In Euro we pray. The ultimate weenie false idol.

We all want as much snow as possible. Regardless, I have no qualms discussing when things look bad or good. If things are going bad, I have no desire to look intoxicated pimping a storm that has no shot since I can do a fine job looking stupid posting about legit chances. In one of life's best eye opening lessons stated to me by my late uncle (God rest his soul), "...with the cream comes the cr@p." That pretty much sums up this hobby for snow lovers outside of climatologically favored snow regions of this earth.

I just realized when I posted this, I was thinking MLK was the following Monday, 1/22. So replace "Mlk" with 1/22. Sorry

If there's one thing for certain, the model depictions for the 16/17th today will not be reality on the 16/17th. So we got that going for us.

I was just talking about today's run. Mlk is a problem since we go into the unfavorable MJO phases on or about the 13th. I think by Mlk we fight the MJO. Hopefully, it passes fast into 7, but MJO forecasts stink. In any event, if we miss next week, I think it's a while before anything legit pops up. Jmho as much as I wish it wasn't.

12z Gefs had, for that far away, a decent signal. As we know, the operational is just another ensemble member essentially, so it will be all over the place. What bugs me is how all the ingredients are there but to get us to score, is beyond thread the needle difficult. But hope springs eternal....until the spring breaks.

I think it's fair to say most are here for the snow. Even with that general forecast that matches strong Niños, many of those Niños had snow during warm months. I think it’s also fair to say that decent winter show themselves by now taking into consideration the date and forecasts for the next 10 days. If we're honest, this winter fails to have any characteristics of a decent/snowy winter. Using Bwi as my benchmark, if we/they fail the rest of January, which I would define as 2":or less for them and 4" or less here, we're looking at 94/95 and 97/98 as a viable strong Niño options. I'll stop right there.

I was wondering when you would get to that. Lol Geps and Gefs both have a weak, if there is such a thing, split.

There are more cutters on today's model runs than at a f@rt festival.

Less flooding, Noah...sorry.

You may have a legit shot for the event on the 16 or 17, but I put my odds of seeing a 4"+ event (with or without a mix or change to rain) at 20% tops. I can see the writing on the wall based on prior years of following winter wx in the area, 1972-present. January is looking like a whole lot of threats and not a lot of substantial hits, if any; how I hope I'm wrong. February may be different, but it's too early to say.

Euro is as bad as the rest in the medium range. Top is 0z and bottom is 12z. That is horrific performance by allegedly the best model on earth.

At 162 hrs, Euro looks more like the 12z Gfs than the 0z Euro at 174hrs. I'll assume that's not good until the rest of the run proves otherwise.

Gfs operational looks like doo-doo, but there's a decent Gefs signal for the storm the Euro showed on 0z run. 24hr snowfall attached. Of course, the way things have gone over the last 2 years, Euro will probably pull it on 12z. Lol

Hope you like cold and dry.

Icon getting agressive with the cold if not the snow in the medium range. The cold is still moving east, yet to reach the coast, and is a 1pm map too.

Lake at Codorus may finally getting to near normal levels, but it has a long way to go the last time I looked.

Fyi, I hate strong winds no matter the season. Stay safe.

More ptsd

Yep. We've lost them and clippers. On a different note, there's no doubt that had the Icon gone out further than 120 at 18z, it would have shown some reasonable front end snow to mix then rain.

I did see it, but it was like reliving a ptsd moment, so I just closed my eyes and shook a little.