mitchnick

Heights are a touch lower on the Nam. That can't hurt at least.

I'm about 1000-1500 feet from the Adam's County border. Does that mean I still have to drive cautiously in the snow?

My updated NWS forecast says 3-5" Saturday with additional 1-2" Saturday night possible. I guess they don't buy the Euro operational.

Even the Eps don't believe the operational. Lol

I know it's an operational, but the 12z Euro is downright depressing how the ridge keeps building back along the east coast and the trough just stays in the west causing 1 cutter after another. Put the 500mb anomaly maps run in motion. Speed it up and you'll see what I mean. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500h_anom&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=

The 1 thing that gives me hope despite the Euro is what happened in December. I wish I kept the snowfall maps, but the night of the event the Euro's 0z run (12 hour forecast) had me at .5-.75" and the 6z (6 hour forecast) had me at either .2" or .3". Both runs had a small area of Carroll County, MD at 1" around Manchester and less for the rest of the County. I ended up with 1.25" and Psuhoffman posted a pic of 3.5" in his back yard. So despite the Euro's supposed better thermals, it's not perfect. Other models that night were all over the place, some better and some worse. The marginal events seem to often bust 1 way or the other, so we hope and pray it's a good bust.

After NE's snow, they have this and temps on the 50's. Pretty cruel winter for NE so far. We're more used to it. They aren't.

I meant he was goingvto use them as a crutch when he fails. But I hope he's right.

That's definitely more than the Pivotal map. I now see how JB's forecast will verify.

...and sweating bullets.

Lol Gefs

Ukie rain next week....ughhh. Where were you in the summer?

No! I said Ukoe....the Hawaiian model.

Ukoe held imby. Driving so can't post more.

Yep...biblical

Looks like kuchie has me in the 5-5.5" range. I'll take it.

I'm at 600', but on the north side of town, for however that helps.

I'm right on the edge too.

Bigtime hold

3k. Not quite over but mix south and east by then.

Nah, 2nd batch dried up down here at least.

I'll take the Nam. I think we get a second batch from the trailing vort. Probably no accumulations however.

In my pre-event pity party I'm preparing for myself on Sunday if necessary, I was looking at modeling for next week. 6z Eps have over 1" of rain between the hours of 120-144, and it's not over. So at least it's comforting to know that by Wednesday morning, the ground will be brown and sogged regardless of whether 12" or 1.2" of snow falls over the weekend.

When there's no hope on the globals.