mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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You're going to make me watch movies now to figure out a forecast? This is too hard.
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Fwiw, today's Euro weeklies continue to look as good, if not a hair better, imho.
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That's an old pic!
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I never heard of Elliott before coming to this forum. I know he's out of MU, but what is he? Professor, student assistant?
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What I don't get is why the change in the forecast today. I check every model's MJO forecast every day. They have not suddenly changed. If anything, they have moved the MJO wave faster toward the good phases in the last week than progged, which is good for us. But definitely the phase 7 forecast has been in the cards for over a week. Strange. I think he just got a look at the 12z ensembles and just didn't say it.
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That said, the 12z ensembles are can kicking by holding onto the ridging in the east. At this point, who the he!! knows what modeling will show anymore.
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If you go to this link, which is MJO phases in El Niños, Phase 7 in February is not warm in the east. There is a trough along the southern Conus, just like what long range modeling is showing; I've attached the image. I don't know where he got that. Maybe he's looking at all Enso phase average instead of Niños. https://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html
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Eps upping totals too.
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I hope we can sneak something in over the next 15 days, even a mixed or slop event. Folks up north/west of mby have a better chance with pressing surface Highs being advertised. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59789-central-pa-winter-2324/?do=findComment&comment=7170195
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No, I said I hoped we could steal one and also said this was our only shot to steal one and I would stick with it thinking it wouid come south.
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If we can steal this one, my attitude toward this winter will change markedly. Lol
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I could see it coming because the soithern storm slowed down and allowed the northern stream more time to come south and inject cold air.
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Euro looks to be better than 0z. Know shortly
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Atmospheric memory. Lol
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12z Icon shifts north a bit and hits central and northern PA more this run. Still some snow in the south though.
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Bliz, you're losing your touch! Lol 6z Icon. Decent snow ongoing at end of run too!
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@GaWx I was referring to 10mb warming.
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By the way, don't believe that the entire Euro suite is showing below normal snow in the Mid Atlantic. 0z 1/22 weeklies,,in fact, show AN snows in VA & MD for the 3 weeks starting 2/6. All of PA, save a small area, is normal'ish for 3 weeks per that weekly run.
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Welp, 6z Eps backing up my thoughts of the south progression of snowfall. Plenty of time to shift a bit further south too.
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As I posted yesterday, this winter has wanted to bullseye DC/BWI, so I'll be surprised if there isn't a continued shift south. Though I do think this forum will also benefit as well. Let's see if the atmosphere does have a memory.
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Don't look now, but 18z Gefs showing 850 temps near normal at the end of the run.
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Anybody (as in @GaWx) notice a warming on the SE Asian side of the Pole at the end of the Gefs and Geps runs? What, if anything, do you make of it?
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Eps weeklies. Week starting 2/12 looks pretty darn good and it has been getting better for days. 2 weeks after that look great as well, but not quite the extent as this week.
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?
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I got it. It just struck me as I saw the video that I hadn't watched a college football game in forever. I'm old. Gimme a break! Lol
