mitchnick

I warned about that today when the Geps was showing a very strong - Nao that we risked a full latitude block what is also shown on the operational 18z run. It's just not going to be as simple as the weeklies suggest. Can't say it enough imho.

Cansips and Cfs do show a good portion (again, based on my understanding of the area Bluewave highlighted) getting to or a little BN as they both show a strong Niña. He!!, if we need it to go super Niña, let's do it. The atmosphere is always adjusting back and forth to reach neutral so I would think it will happen eventually, so why not next year.

Surprising how the Gefs and Geps saw the warming first at 10mb as per my post of 1/24 @ you. Eps was uncharacteristically late to the party.

On top of the snow debacle, the Gfs ends with the attached 5H pattern. Nah, that would never happen, would it? Or should I ask whether our current pig Canadian block that has screwed us for weeks would ever happen again? See where I'm going with this folks? Where are all these great patterns advertised on the ensembles and long range? They shouid be showing up on the Gfs operational on at least 1 or 2 out of the 4 daily runs by now imho. Instead, we're getting the same vomit we have now.

I swear. I look at the operational Gfs with its exotic solutions that always find a way to either deny us snow or greatly underperform and just feel like throwing in the towel and accepting that this winter is simply a smaller turd to last year's diarrhea, call it another fail, and just walk away.

Would you want to be stuck over Cleveland? Lol

Looking at the Eps more closely, there must be 2 camps wrt the storm threat because there are 2 slugs of moisture with a lull of 12-18hrs in between. That 72 hour period picks up both. Since there's only 1 storm, I think that makes the snowfall maps overstated/too high. I say this after letting the 6hr precip maps loop. There's a precip peak around 198hrs then another around 222hrs. By the way, even though it may seem like it, I'm not trying to poo-poo every threat. I am, however, trying to figure out exactly what the models are really telling us because so many times model misinterpretations are honestly made that leed to erroneous expectations. I know because I've made many.

Can you start it 24 hrs earlier?

Better than that fwiw at this point.

12z Euro is nice on the 1 day of the winter I don't want it. But everyone else enjoy for 12 hrs.

Too much of a good thing on day 16 imho. But it will either weaken as we approach and be ok or get so strong as to develop a full latitude ridge like what we are in now. Believe me, anything is possible despite what these silicon boxes are spitting out today.

Terrible Gfs run post 2/14.

12z Icon is suppressed but not necessarily completely. I think it’s just delaying it by 12hrs, give or take, but too early to say for sure. Let's see what other guidance says.

Little surpised Bliz didn't post Icon at the end of it 0z run. Similar evolution as Euro but looks a tad colder with an overall better setup. Of course, 12z will be out shortly on Pivotal which may diss the whole idea. Lol

Well, I'm willing to sacrifice next year if necessary. Lol

I can't recall if that's the right page of the handbook since I ripped that page out of mine in disgust years ago.

Looking ahead to next year, I'm personally rooting for as strong a Niña as possible. Why? I would like to see if that AN pool in the western Pac at 30c or more Bluewave has referenced along with the AN Indian Ocean temps get wiped out, will that make a difference with the MJO/US temps in general. Additionally, strong Niñas often cool other oceans somewhat. The current world sea surface temps and SSTA are attached. You can see the +30c waters in the western Pac east of Australia. They were a bit warmer a month ago, but this is good enough. Next I attached the Cansips latest run for 1/25 and then the Cfs for 11/24 since that's as far as the current forecast goes. You can see the 30c+ area has cooled a lot on both models as well as the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. I'm sure if I screwed up the area Bluewave was referring to, he can correct me. But I think I got it right for the most part. Assuming we do get those ocean temps to cool, we may still have to wait another year, God willing, to see results and then hope they don't rise again! Lol In any event, it'll be interesting the results next winter assuming the Cansips and Cfs forecasts are close to being right.

Yes, all the ensembles have, so it looks like we may be in the process of winning that battle. But we're still losing the war for snow since all 3 ensembles at the end of their runs still have the bulk of the precip in the south missing us. There is still time for that period to be a legit threat, of course, but we better start seeing runs showing a better ridge in the west and precip spreading north soon.

If accurate, no, it's not bad. But the Gefs are almost always too snowy. 12z Eps thru entire 360 hrs is really bad, and I see no reason to think it's wrong vs Gefs since Gefs have in 1 run just caved to the Eps on days 15-16.

Bliz, my point was and remains that the ensemble guidance can't detect the little nuances which are sufficient to fook our chances. As for patience, some of us have been weenies since the 1960's and realize that asking for patience at this point in the season is a stretch at best. Maybe in the mts. or in central and northern PA they can afford to be patient, but near the MD border and outside of the mts, me being patient or not has no effect on the calendar.

Eps snowfall on day 14, which obviously includes 13, is attsched. Nothing of consequence. Pure scattering of nothing.

Might as well pile on with the bad news. I also said the stronger ridge to the east would warm things up than thought. Top map is 12z and bottom map 18z.

Ughh. Just what I feared. My earlier post mentioned that the ensembles, especially the Eps and Geps, had a broad, oval ridge out west poking into the TN Valley approaching the MA, fearing it would suppress precip. Well, like clockwork, the 18z Gefs succumb to the Eps and Gefs. The top 2 maps are off the 12z with the 5H anomalies and 6-hour precip at the end of the run. Bottom 2 are off the 18z for the same time as 12z. Look how the ridge in the west is now stronger and pushing much further east and looks a lot like the 12z Eps and Geps (assuming you bothered to look at them.) Now look at the precip map...weaker and much further south thanks to the pancake ridge blocking the flow from the Gulf of Mexico. It's cr@p like this that is absolutely maddening because those "perfect" maps, at least in recent years, continue to degrade ascwe approach crunch time. And before some knucklehead jumps in and claims it, it has nothing to do with CC. It's just lousy modeling and even worse luck than was thought possible. Now this doesn't mean I am saying no change to cold or that this can't morph into something good or great past current models runs. I am saying, however, don't trust any model that shows a snowy or perfect pattern no matter how certain or clear it looks to be on modeling.

Where's that?

I edited the above post as I mistakenly posted n/s trough instead of ridge.