mitchnick

Take a look at the Icon starting 132hrs

That's why I have a disdain for ensemble forecasting, short, medium, or long. They change as much as the operational, group think with the operationals, and are hit and miss like the operationals. And "yes", I really do understand how to use them. The best you can say imho(not that anybody cares) is they are a little better in 7-10 days+ periods. The extended EPS & GEFS...lol.

Yeah. I was referring to future events. "She's Gone" ©

That should get some ENE'ers a little squeamish. Boundary temps have been killing them this year.

I just want to be "purplized" at least once this winter and then back to spring-fall hibernation.

East of Somerset and Garrett Counties.

I mistakenly posted the 144hr Ukie snowfall map which includes stuff next week. This map is just this storm.

My 2 cents. I can't recall a storm with the Euro in bed with the Gfs contrary to the Ukie and Canadian. No idea where it ends, but default/safe bet is always north.

Ukie still drinking

Gfs well north from Nam. If this goes down as Gfs is showing, or north, Icon is hands-down the victor of all the models. It's been north of all guidance consistently.

I feel like I've been looking at that same map for over 50 years. Different storm, same result.

Your NWS forecast is 2-5"

Modeling has not been stellar. Just go with the warmest model that's run just before the start time and you're good.

Nam was surprisingly good. It's holding on by a thread. Lol

Eps beyond Tuesday surprisingly encouraging. Shame I'm having a hard time putting much faith in them after 3 runs in a row they had me between 4.5-5" for next week then cut that in half within 60hrs of the event...and despite having a decent % odds of getting 4" or more too. When will they ever adjust the models to not be so snow crazy?

These models feel like trying to have a chess game on a ship in the middle of a hurricane. Pieces just keep on moving around all over the place.

I have found that SV map legend is off by 1 category so 4" is 2" on other sites, 6" is 4", etc.

Snow depth is all I can get for now. It's south. https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/pennsylvania/snow-depth-in/20240213-2100z.html

Ukie looks south, but Pivotal hasn't updated and Meteocentre.com only goes to 72hrs with limited info.

Do you wear a red cape and carry a pitchfork?

The Nam sucked because it was pushed south by the northern stream right before the best panel or 2. Rgem muscles the storm off the coast so fast the cold never gets involved. Global 12z modeling will be interesting to say the least.

And for comparison, this is the Rgem. Literally nothing for our forum and most of NE. I've never seen such a stark difference between these 2 models.

Bliz, I think the problem is the pattern is not the pattern advertised last week. If it was, there wouldn't be the concern.

Here's the main problem I have with posting only some of the maps. He posted a 5 day period off the Gefs that showed a decent 5h, below normal temps, and mean slp to our south. I checked to see how much qpf fell in south central PA during those 5 days and it was .7". But snowfall was only 2" at 10:1. So that means despite the favorable looking 5 day averages, only 28.5% fell as snow. But with mean temps below normal, it's assumed most is snow. I know you can't post every map every time, but by looking a little deeper it's around climo for February. Did anyone come away with that impression from those 3 maps alone?