mitchnick

Some joyful, heavy mist action here. All we need now is a Ravens loss for the locals who support them.

Comparing 12z modeling, Ukie looks more like the Gfs unfortunately than Canadian at 144hrs, the Ukie limit.

Canadian otoh

Oh yeah, she's coming up the coast with that look....coast of Florida then ots that is.

Just bustin' balls.

Along with everyone else east of the Mississippi and west of Bermuda. Lol

Snow mean is great at this range, but I get a little skeptical when several of the ensemble members place the slp in the Bahamas. Lol

I don't want to be in your mind. Tomorrow night will either be celebration or funeral arrangements depending on what the Ravens do. Nah, not me, my wife and daughter. I'll be hiding upstairs either way because I really don't care except for the sake of my wife and daughter who do.

I have little faith in that one which is why I haven't discussed it. It's a moving target that won't get ironed out until 12-24 hours in advance.

I need to see that change occur for the trough in the SW to move east and the ridge in the east needs to scram. There were a few runs a couple days ago that showed both happening, but the ensembles took a step back, which is what's got me wondering.

Ever slight improvement on 12z Gefs and Eps. Still makes me think a can kick of some sort will show up on at least first weekly

Don't get too excited. Eps has slp mean further southeast than 0z.

Lol euro

Looking at the ensembles, I just don't see how the weeklies are going to verify the first week. It's possible that the MJO is messing them up since most modeling has the wave doubling back once in Phase 7 to either barely back into 6 or on the edge of 7 to 6, then toward Phase 8. But for the week beginning 2/12, the first progged week of the perfect 5h previously posted, I don't see any of the ensembles that end on or about 2/12 looking like the weeklies. So it's either all 3 ensembles are wrong at the end of their runs, an unaffordable can-kick of the pattern by day(s)/week, or they're modeled perfect patterns are a fail and who knows what will verify. That said, I am basing this on the 12z Gefs and 0z Eps and Geps. Hopefully the 12z runs of those 2 will suggest their prior runs were flawed.

Yep. Long way to go. Be nice to commemorate the 2/6/10 blizzard with one on 2/6/24.

Snow mean has increased, but a lot of spread on how far north slp can come. Definitely in the game as of now.

Eps only goes out 360 hrs vs 384 for Geps. Eps on its way to Geps a day later looking at this 360hr map.

Geps finally kicks the trough out of the SW and builds a +PNA & -EPO. Temps in the east are at or below normal headed down. This fits perfectly with all extended ensembles. Next step is the the Atlantic trough to continue migrating north into the 50/50 position thereby causing the -NAO to get firmly established.

We hope in the Gfs

I've never covered mine. I've thought about doing it, but never heard any horror stories if I didn't. But I have thought that if we were threatened by a bad ice storm, I'd get around to it.

Good. If it ain't gunna snow, let me save my oil until it's cold enough to snow. Then I can put all that wonderful, warming carbon in the air. Lol

Eps extended have been advertising a big event the week of 2/12-19 for several days. I don't know its evolution, but my guess would be the sw trough lifts out and because a major storm that has its main effects on the interior. The first snowfall map I posted last night reflects that with the greatest snowfall anomalies in NE PA, but stretching south toward us as well. I was thinking that may be our first shot at a biggy.

It was so unusual, I doubt anyone is too surprised.

It's too warm to use 10:1 Bliz. I think Kuchera is closer to reality, which is more snow tv than anything. 6z Gfs drops a bomb over mby. Lol Yeah...right.

Last sentence is why it's hard to get excited, but I think I'll see flakes.