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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    Ukie stuck at 39hrs on Pivotal, but it looks 4-8" or so when done.
  2. mitchnick
    My back yard still pretty snow covered. Most of the yards on the north side of the house in my neighborhood, whether front or back, have retained 75% of the snow. Due to the low sun angle, the houses block much of the direct sunlight; south sides mainly, but not only, piles.
  3. mitchnick
    You're in dem hills. I city folk.
  4. mitchnick
    Get to be my age and even the white stripes in the road become the fall line.
  5. mitchnick
    Hopefully not much rain today to destroy remaining snow.
  6. mitchnick
    Really hard to get excited about anything more than 5 days out.
  7. mitchnick
    Ninja'd
  8. mitchnick
    Hrdps posted in MA is further south and nice looking.
  9. mitchnick
    Just gotta hope that the Nam's 84hr depiction is better than it's 36 hr forecast...Naaahh lol
  10. mitchnick
    Lighter on the precip, but that's what the Gem did at 6z as I mentioned previously.
  11. mitchnick
    That's starting off pretty far west than other modeling and further north with the rn/sn line. Just sayin'. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025011812&fh=84&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=ref1km_ptype&m=nam https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=500hv&rh=2025011812&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  12. mitchnick
    Definitely the AI is right up there, but because we don't get snowfall forecasts from it, it's harder to compare it to the Canadians.
  13. mitchnick
    In the end, imho I think the Canadians are going to end up being more right than wrong and far superior to other guidance when considering how long they've had held their forecasts.
  14. mitchnick
    I'm hoping the Rgem/Gem come in looking like the FV-3.
  15. mitchnick
    FV-3. It's like the Rgem for the Gem, but for the Gfs.
  16. mitchnick
    High Risk said before last Monday's storm that the Hrrr doesn't include new soundings for each run.
  17. mitchnick
    Later start and faster movement.
  18. mitchnick
    Precip looks paultry to me, but we'll see how it ends.
  19. mitchnick
    AI 6z steady as she goes.
  20. mitchnick
    That 4-day period, if true, would beat any consecutive 4-day period in 93/94.
  21. mitchnick
    Imho, I doubt any of us weather weenies who know where to go for weather products will notice.
  22. mitchnick
    Those are the 0z runs. 6z Rgem came north a bit and knocked me down to 4" and 6z GEM cut back on precip for all making it a 4-8" storm vs 8-12". So the inevitable north/last minute waiver has reached them too.
  23. mitchnick
    Ukie ensembles have shifted north a bit from last run putting MDT in the center instead of mby. Canadians were fine by me for days even though being on the southern side. But with them taking the near inevitable north jog it'll be a problem if it continues. Not that they will definitely be right, but all modeling is starting a north shift a bit.
  24. mitchnick
    You've always had his best interests at heart.
  25. mitchnick
    Fyi, 0z AI showed an overrunning type snow event next Monday and then a couple more shots after that, but the later ones ar best north. Can't be stated enough that the AI is all over the place like other modeling in the long run.
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