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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    My concern is precip. All long range guidance I've seen shows a great trough in the east, +PNA, -NAO and dry. I believe it gets cold, but does it precipitate? I don't think we can just assume the stj continues to aim precip at us since the whole pattern will be changed from what we've had and looks stable thru early March. I'm not forecasting it will be dry, but nothing I've seen has AN precip for us and some guidance is well BN precip. Always something.
  2. mitchnick
    Screw em?....a tiny moth? You been talking to my wife?
  3. mitchnick
    Moths need a home too ya' know.
  4. mitchnick
    The fact that there are 3, if not more, sources for ssta numbers is absurd imho.
  5. mitchnick
    There is support!
  6. mitchnick
    Only if you promise to never post climo data. Lol
  7. mitchnick
    The sacred "pattern" advertised by long range modeling for weeks has medium range modeling advertising the "fruits" of the pattern now within the medium range.
  8. mitchnick
    Crushes it instead of phasing. Carry on...nothing to see here. Lol
  9. mitchnick
    Fwiw, Canadian looks a bit more interesting with the 5th early on with the northern stream headed SE. How much it can pull the southern stream north tbd.
  10. mitchnick
    They got one a couple weeks before PDII.
  11. mitchnick
    Doubt it's right, but 0z Icon is entertaining if nothing else.
  12. mitchnick
    Nice to see the Gfs has our first Mecs/Hecs at the end of the 18z run.
  13. mitchnick
    Saw from NE thread they would probably be upgrading the resolution, but poster wasn't certain.
  14. mitchnick
    Anybody hear about this? It's a notice posted on Stormvista re the Euro.
  15. mitchnick
    And 3 days later, 850's are normal and surface temps down considerably following 850's back towards normal....all consistent with extended ensembles fwiw.
  16. mitchnick
    Probably is time to finally party with the Gefs. The good news is that 850 temps are normal and surface only a hair over on their way down. Time to buckle up and see what comes of it.
  17. mitchnick
    Gefs creeping precip/snow north as of 168hrs fwiw.
  18. mitchnick
    Explanation of why mid-late February-March has a shot. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59779-winter-202324-mediumlong-range-discussion/?do=findComment&comment=7185737
  19. mitchnick
    Doesn't scream snow, but does want to make me scream!
  20. mitchnick
    Actually, this started out as a threat on the Euro when it showed a traditional Carolina Crusher. If it is going to crush someone, I think it still favors the Carolinas.
  21. mitchnick
    Iow, we don't have a shot. Agreed. Lol
  22. mitchnick
    Nothing to get it north. 500mb has a closed low that's stuck keeping slp stalled in the SE until the NE gyre (thanks Larry Cosgrove) pulls out and lets it escape to the east.
  23. mitchnick
    Yep. From the start, but hopefully not to the finish. Not that I have anything against the people of Finland.
  24. mitchnick
    Odd 78/79-La Nada 77/78-weak Nino 95/96-weak Nina
  25. mitchnick
    I don't disagree completely, but in this case, the pattern represented by a -PDO does fit our pattern in the mean this winter.
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