mitchnick

Perfect timing for me. I'm loving it.

He!! Yeah it is! End of the run gives some hope too.

Yep. Figured that would happen once the Euro was showing a closed low in Texas. Closed 5H lows along or near the Gulf never come north unless you have northern stream energy at the perfect spot pulling them north. Much better odds with an open 5H low. Of course, once to WVA or Western VA and to our south, close em' on up and we'll rock.

Ukie has next week a wound up rainstorm centered in western TN Monday 12z fwiw. But Ukie's always drunk at this range.

12z Gefs looks good for next week.

Canadian is a hit from state College north. Rain for PA south, but at least there is precip.

Icon looks ready to go boom past 180hrs on 12z run.

So they got around half their annual climo in 1 storm. That's not unusual in the Mid Atlantic and other locations in the east.

I think we're going to be in a dry period for an extended period, short of clippers, after next week so I really hope it can work out for all.

Eps 0z top 6z bottom

6z Eps look flatter, hence better, for next week imho.

6z Gefs have continued the progression of the -Nao ridging building south into the Great Lakes just like the Gfs operational has been showing. Question now is whether the Geps and Eps follow. We'll see. All 3 ensembles do continue to show BN precip for the last 7 days of their runs, unfortunately. So in that respect, they already agree. That fact does suggest to me that Geps and Eps will cave to Gefs with the ridge. In practical terms, however, it probably doesn't matter how they get dry. Extended Eps do show AN precip beginning the last few days of February into March, so there's that.

6z Gefs also favor central and northern PA for next week.

6z Gfs pulls the rug out for us southern folks next week, but is consistent with the 0z Gefs and Geps. Gefs and Geps look better for a southern system at the end of their runs. Eps look better for entire forum next week but not real impressed beyond that.

Bliz, good thing you are willing to believe the Gfs under 10 days.

You may be getting your wish. Precip signature off 18z Eps at 144hrs sure favors a further south track than 12z. I would post slp members, but it's still a shotgun spread so I think precip field is a better tool at this point. Temps still not much different than 12z however.

Fwiw. These snowfall anomalies are from last night’s Eps.

I agree that the pattern looks gorgeous, but that pattern off both the Eps and Geps shouldn't result in the 7 day precip anomalies reflected on these maps if there weren't a sufficient number of members showing ridging pressing everything south imho. My opinion, so I could be wrong for the reason but the anomaly maps speak for themselves.

Your maps are prettier so I don't know if what I'm seeing on the TT maps will show up very well.

The Geps is trending toward the -Nao ridge bleeding south just as the Gefs. Put this Geps 500mb anomalies from 12z today post 348hrs+. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2024020512&fh=348

It's called...the writing is on the wall. This is the 5th Gfs run in a row to show the ridge (see attachment) and Gefs are starting to show the popping of the ridge too.

I was in college when it came out. Perfect college mentality movie. Lol I think it was intended as a raunchier version of Grove Tube, which came out 2 or 3 years earlier.

Back to our miserable weather, top map is 18z Gfs at 15hrs (tomorrow) and the bottom map is 366hrs., which is 2/21 well into the alleged great pattern. Notice any worthwhile differences? Me neither. I had a feeling we'd end up with this garbage. Models really do suk.

I just watched that trailer, and don't remember 90% of it, but it has been 46 years, sooo...

It was rated R so I'm sure it was probably in the movie, I just don't remember.