mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Updated extended Eps snowfall anomaly for 3 weeks, the first week is the 7 days ending 2/19.
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Mean back to earth the hard way.
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I am referring to third week on the Gefs extended and Eps weeklies.
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I'm really wondering what the he!! is going on with these pos ensembles that continue to hold onto the ridge in the east. I just don't see how the Gefs extended and Eps weeklies verify.
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Hard up. I lived there long enough to know the feeling. Lol
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Yeah, I was just going to mention how the Euro carves out a large trough in the east thanks to the Canadian ridge that pins it in the NE and won'tlet to escape. Recall the Gfs was advertising a trough in the east similar to it several days ago, so I guess it was on to something.
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Gfs loses a lot of the snow because it loses the closed 500mb vort.
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Nam extrapolated would be great, so we've got that going for us, which is nische.
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I can smell it here on ene'ly winds. But my back way to Williamsburg, VA takes me thru the town of West Point, VA, which has a seemingly bigger mill you drive right by so I'm used to it. I fondly recall the days of my youth growing up in Glen Burnie, MD when winds were out of the NW you could really smell the hops from the Carling Beer brewery along the SE side of the Baltimore beltway at I895. Ahh, now that was nice. Too bad the beer sucked. Lol
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Some days, that smell from the paper mill in Spring Grove can make it a long way.
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Euro seemingly folding to the Gfs but without the closed low over MD, which is what gives most of PA its snow. If the Gfs loses the closed low (like the Gefs), we're toast on the snow. Still time, but this event has been a longshot all along for goof reason.
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6z Euro is basically rain for all despite some mix or snow in higher elevations. It even pulls the plug on high totals in NE.
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Yep, but literally no ensemble support. But I don't think any of the models have really figured it out. I was surprised to see the Eps 0z run pulled back from snowfall amounts in NE from its 18z run. Sorta expected to see it increase snowfall waiving bye-bye to our chances.
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I'll take the 6z Gfs and call it a month. 6z Nam looks interesting, but more for my northern...friends? Lol
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Nam is a mess. Looks more like the Gfs.
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Yep, and then deepen off the coast like the 12z.
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Just short on cold air as we all knew.
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Bliz, I also noticed that High pressure in Canada was weaker at 1030 vs 1033 at 12z.
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Ninja'd
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Eps a touch further north. Looks like the stronger system pulled in some warm weather.
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I like the 18z Euro. It's a tad deeper with the slp that is headed from W NC to the Obx based on isobars and the 5h vort is near identical to 12z. Hopefully the Eps reflect an improvement, but not guarantees of course.
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It's right when it's the only one that says no.
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None of the 18z runs strike me as moving toward the Euro unfortunately. I was hoping to see that be the case. That said, 18z GGEM did come in slightly better with the slp a bit stronger than its 12z run, but that's likely inconsequential.
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Gfs is still trying to figure it out. It would be a better model if the Euro came out before it.
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You're going to make me watch movies now to figure out a forecast? This is too hard.
