mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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There seems to be less spacing between the vort passing to our north on Thursday evening and the one set to hit us. Need ours to slow or the other to speed up. I think we've lost any soitgern moisture of consequence too.
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There are studies that Bluewave claims points to warm waters in the western Pac and Indian Ocean as the origin of our Pacific pattern problems. I'm not prepared to sign onto it, but as I posted in the El Nino thread, I'm all in for a super Nina which would cool that area. Then starting in 25/26 winter, God willing, see how things look.
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Because all forecasts past 5 days are 1 notch above a guess. They should put 50-75% of the money and resources currently used for anything beyond 7 days into short range modeling imho.
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Yep, and after that I'm ok with closing up shop. Though I still think a flukey, late season event would be possible if the advertised SSW on the Eps occurs over the weekend. I'm thinking a cut-off, meandering low that drops big numbers often seen in March.
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Should have mentioned that the 0z Euro had the system the Ggem had at the end of its run, but was too far north for most of the forum. Plenty of time to come south in keeping with the flavor of the season. 0z Gfs had it dumping a decent event but 6z went haywire. It'll be back on the Gfs, of course.
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All modeling seems to have improved for the weekend, including 6z runs. Icon remains the best, so I've attached it. P.s. Ggem has a bomb at the end of its run. It was close at 12z, but adjusted for a home run at 0z.
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If your like me, what's it matter? There's only an inch or 2 left. Lol
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Almost double mby. Dang!
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Eps improved from 12z with coverage and increasing amounts. Not much, but we are talking about ensembles that are always incremental in changes at 3+ days.
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Do I have to do everything around here? Euro juicing up.
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I wish the Icon would stop looking so good imby. It'll never hold. Lol
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Euro, formerly known as the King.
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It did ok with today's event, but that could have been luck as it's rarely the best model on any particular storm. The king has been dethroned with nothing to replace it, so model anarchy rules.
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Shame timing on the Gem is off on this. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024021312&fh=132&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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Ggem is serving shredded wheat for the weekend. We toss.
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Dang. Gfs is advertising cold shot after cold shot.
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Come on. Guys like you and me are too good for that...
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Weird how the Gfs really slows down the slp from 84hrs onward. Sorta like it's waiting for something to explode. Lol
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Vigorous sucker on Gfs. Max is thru N MD this run.
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Here comes the GOM on Gfs
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Gfs is going to be south of 6z
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Not when you drive like I do.
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I'm liking 12z modeling so far. We may just nickel and dime ourselves to average yet thanks to February, the favored month in Niños.
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I had 4" on the dot, and he's not that far from me.
