mitchnick

1am reading down to 28 at York AP before temps started rising thanks to clouds.

I posted a month or so ago (too lazy to find it) that December would torch and I felt mby wouldn't get legit snow chances until the 1/15-2/25 period. I'll stick with that for now with the only caveat that 6-week period may need future adjustment in the future back a week or 2 to start in early January, but only if N America is able to cool fast enough from December.

It's been out for 2 days on TT. Seems like, at least at this point, all seasonal forecasts show the Dec-Feb period average in the +1-2C range for the east. The question now is whether that's underdone or overdone. Let me get back to you on that one!

Looks like you'll need to microwave the rats instead.

Lol. I was still celebrating yesterday and wasn't looking at models.

Little early in the season for a run like this on the 12z Gfs. Lol

Yeah, but you get the chick!

Is that for Millersville area or S. PA?

Only if it keeps getting warmer!

I think WeatherBell offers daily runs, but that may be on the Control run. Not sure as I haven't had a WB account in years.

In case anyone cares, I think I've found the reason for the differences between the Cfs2 site and the Cfs2 shown on TT. Cfs2 site is an average of runs for the last 9 days and TT is an average of the last 12 runs, or 3 days. Since today's TT Cfs2 maps are much warmer than what's reflected on the Cfs2 site as of today, I would expect the Cfs2 site to show some noticeable warming over the next week unless TT maps reverse their recent warming. I guess we'll see if I'm right. Cfs2 site if you don'thave it handy: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html TT Cfs2: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2024102706&fh=1

When a team can look so good one week and so bad the next, it's got to be 80-90% coaching imho.

I know. I was being a desperate weenie.

In retrospect or when looking ahead? Lol

We were forecasted to stay in the 50's overnight thanks to the flow in front of a cold front. It's 54 now but the front is through with nw winds. Temps should be slow to rise.

Cfs2 has been cooling the last week, but I assume it's too cool. If the trend continues, an updated forecast....err, guess may be needed. Lol

Roof frost all over and a low of 32 at York Airport.

Yeah, barely touched my oil tank level so far and received only a $90 electric bill yesterday.

Fwiw, Cfs2 and and bias corrected Bomm get it thru 3.

Went over this before, but it's worth repeating. The Cfs2, as all other seasonal modeling, has December as a dumpster fire, which all have acknowledged. The question is what about January and February, as the Dec-Feb average is and has been skewed by December's warmth. This can be seen on the monthly temps link below. I am going verbatim just as your post, and clearly January and February are not as bad is December, and never have been for that matter for the last month. Whether the Cfs2 and other modeling is accurate is whole different discussion. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html

We just need to find something we all agree on to unify us......

Don't really disagree. I just favor official sites except, like I said, when I'm waiting for the cold for a reason.

I was looking at a 90 with 2 of the closest stations 82 and another at 84. I think it comes down to micro climates and equipment. Jmho

That's why I never bother to look at Wunderground station temps unless I'm waiting for cold air to arrive waiting for a changeover from rain to snow. You just don't know where the station is situated and how accurate that particular station is. There shouldn't be that much of a difference over such short distances without micro climates and/or faulty wx instruments. I see the inexplicable variations within a mile of my house at locations with only a few feet asl' apart.

With all those 82's close by, I think some of those higher numbers may have the sun shining on the wx stations.