mitchnick

Nam is colder. That's the key.

Should have added not to rely on the precip map but click on your location to get the sounding and suggested precip type.

Don't look now, but the 18z Nam is advertising precip coming in Wednesday night as snow for many. Pivotal Nam maps have me with Snow as likely precip. Time to run with 84 hr Nam progs folks. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2024112418&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

EPS hitting southern central and eastern Canada hard with snow over the next 2 weeks. That won't be melting fast, if at all, in the coming weeks. It should really help in refrigerating lower levels of the atmosphere this early season.

Gfs suggesting a shot at a clipper late next weekend. But it could get killed by the mts. We'll see.

JB went warm this winter, didn't he? It'll be fun to see him try to get out of that hole IF the current progged pattern, in varying degrees, can hold. JB aside, it has to break down at some point (assuming it comes to fruition) because no pattern is forever. Once it breaks down, does it reload or revert to the consensus seasonal forecasts.

Lol...like I said, ingrained.

You have made 2 posts trying to minimize cold during a future period of time that obviously, hasn't occurred. That's an agenda whether you realize it or not. There is no way possible to know in advance the "future progged" pattern will ever be close enough to those years listed on that composite to compare them fairly until the forecasted period occurs. Yet, you use that list like it's 11 days from now. And for what? Convince yourself or others it won't be as cold as years past? Like I said, sounds like an agenda to me whether you want to admit to yourself or not. Why don't you just let it play out and then analyze the numbers. Maybe you'll be right or maybe you'll be wrong, but you won't have anyone to question your reasons.

I'll be blunt...what's your point other than to nitpick, or is it just an agenda issue ingrained in you? Because I can't see any other options. We have a pattern that not only goes against every lr forecast, but makes everyone who acted as if they know it all look really stupid, and you make another post trying to belittle the cold. Why do it and what's the point? And yes, this pattern will end at some point. So what? That won't minimize the undeniable error of those with forecasts, musings, hunches, discussions that never had this pattern on their radar...which is everyone!

Fwiw, Icon says it rains. SE of Euro, but rain nonetheless because of warm atmosphere to start. Does go with the double system idea Gfs once had.

All ensembles say it (BN tems in the east) lasts in varying degrees starting in 72 hours for the duration of the ensemble runs. That should do the trick, if not sooner.

Incredible how we could go into what was thought to be a slam, dunk furnace only to be quite the opposite. This is how wx weenies are made/proliferate. Lol

Did he bother to say how much snow? I honestly haven't read him for at least 10 years and I recall he loved to claim victory when it was a vague forecast of snow and not much ever felling he insinuated much more. He did have some great calls years ago, but haven't heard anyone touting anything great in a long time.

I don't know why Dave went into meteorology when it's obvious from his tender, caring writing skills, a job in palliative care or hospice would have been where could have shined as a soul mate to the dying. I can just hear him now... -Come on and die mf'er, you can't live forever -Hurry up, already, discounted funerals are always available mid-week, not that anyone will show up to see your shriveled old azz

The problem with early season cold waves is the lack of cold at the surface. Compare 850 anomalies to surface anomalies.

Euro puts many in central and southern PA out of our misery early. Lol Wonder if it's stopped trending nw?

Ukie another suppressed and strung out solution.

Yeah, for central and north, but trend going the wrong way still. Just not enough cold air injected after the front comes thru. More climo than pattern is the problem.

It was really a neat storm with probably one of the sharpest elevation cutoffs you're going to see.

All modeling really starting to kill the MJO wave vs prior forecasting. https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html

6z Eps got a touch warmer and snowfall line shifted north again. Trend needs to stop and start turning the other way.

Yep...and that's what worries me.

You can already see the ridge wanting to drift east at the end of the ensembles. Time will tell if and when it does because I would say it's inevitable any pattern breaks down. For that matter, both Euro and Cfs2 weeklies have the ridge moving east by the 15th. The only caveat is that the weeklies and seasonal models completely missed this cold period, so it's not out of question they screw it up again.

Sorta losing hope down here. 13/14 winter was the only winter I can remember going back through my mental records starting the winter of 72/73, that storms progged to hit, then modeled to come north, ended up coming back south. Iow, they almost always trend north and this one is no different so far. So unless we can pull a 13/14 winter miracle, it's looking like mainly a cold rain or yesterday redux imby. Obviously, weenie hope springs eternal, so I'll keep following it until the hopefully not bitter end, but odds ain't good right now imho.

18z Euro still has next week similar to 12z.