mitchnick

For those believing the Cfs monthly forecasts only have value at the beginning of the forecast month, here's its January forecast.

You can get the daily 0z and 12z Cfs forecasts here for free if interested: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cfs&p=500h_anom&rh=2024123100&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Last night's run has major cold returning 2/1, but like we all know, it could easily change at 12z as prior runs had it warm. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cfs&p=850t_anom&rh=2024123100&fh=768&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

It's going to drop a lot of snow somewhere near us and I think you and I are finally in a decent spot, at least that's how it looks right now.

It is a tightrope. Based on 0z and 6z, it sure looks like there will be an east-west stripe of over a foot. Exactly where that will be is a moving target unless Superstorm's northern stream possibility comes to fruition.

I was just looking at the 5H vort. It's a touch further south at 6z than 0z, but is stronger with 2 closed isobars instead of only 1. This would definitely come north of 0z if it was to play out.

Slp on 6z is further north than 0z by 50-75 miles +/- and is 4mb lower than 0z.

Ukie ensembles. They got better too and look similar to Eps.

Eps for Monday only.

I'm basing my opinion off the Euro weeklies and Cansips, subject to their updates. A week ago the Cfs had January AN for the east. Its forecast for February has no weight at this point imho. And honestly, I don't hold any weight to the internet/Twitter posters. But the post from Webb is just canonical Nina which may or may not occur. Moreover, my post regarding February was just for the first 10 days. I didn't make a call/statement on anything beyond then because I haven't looked that far ahead. I'm still stressing over whether the Euro's 9" forecast for me on Monday has a shot. Lol

Uhhh...NO! 1/00 and 02/03, but not before. I wasn't on the internet in 95/96. Soon after 03 it started coming out more. I know in 03 HM was describing the Euro on the Monday evening before PD2 and nailed it.

Liquor

Pivotal is always more conservative, but look what it's giving you! Lol

Remember the once a day around 8pm?

Since that crapoy update in 2018, it was over ampying everything at this range, but would never hold on to the storm for more than 2 runs. That's why I am happy to see it finally get past 2. Whole lot more to go however.

Pivotal is out to 141hrs. on the Euro. Lol

You're going to break your Jaws recording before you know it with threats like that.

So what happens with this?

Marcus??? He hasn't posted here ever, unless he's posting under another name.

Gefs gives us all <1". Euro better be right, or a lot closer to right than wrong.

Hell no!

Wow. That's 3 runs in a row, but not much room for error.

I doubt the Ukie will ever happen, but at least it gives credence to Euro solution.

Ukie snow https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024123100&fh=168&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Ukie jumped right over us. Lol

As long as the ukie can't cut, it should turn out ok.