mitchnick

JB update This is really pretty interesting. The better the upper air pattern goes with the negatives coming right through the slot, the further out the model pushes the storm. Well at the very least if it’s right I’ll get to see something that I can’t recall seeing. That kind of negative should produce an I 95 blizzard DC to Boston So the call from February 11 remains if I have to change it I’ll change it on Tuesday because until this feature comes out of the Rockies I’ve said too many of these flip flop around. If you’re standing on the ledge don’t jump off yet Last edited12:50 PM · Feb 16, 2025 from Pennsylvania, USA

Completely losing the ridging out front.

AI east again

In case you were wondering how different the Nam looked to the Euro at 84hrs.

Euro looks like the others and not the Nam.

The AI was better for mby and Metros. Lol

Any bets on which way the Euro goes? Nam or everything else? Lol

How I hate wind...personally and meteorologically.

Discussed earlier.

I hope it melts before the winds arrive.

Icon and Rgem are bad this run.

If you put this Composite Radar loop in motion, you can see how the tpv over the midwest sucks the precip back NW. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=refcmp&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=

That what I said earlier this morning.

I'll take this composite radar.

I had to drive my wife over to John's Hopkins in Baltimore City oir her sister's surgery. As I was in the city Iand looking at the taller buildings, an absolute wall of white was descending from the sky. As soon as it made it down, it was a solid lt to moderate snow falling. You've probably seen it with the mountain behind you. But it was especially cool because I was in the street at the base of the buildings watching it drop.

Hey, I got dragged up from Maryland so my wife could babysit our grandchildren often...too often. It wasn't my idea. Lol

Thought so. Thanks.

I think everyone realizes that model forecasts beyond 48-72 hours are not to be taken as gospel. Otoh and maybe unfortunately, they are correct beyond 72 hours in rare circumstances and when we see the kind of snowfall many runs they were showing this week, weenies naturally want them to be correct this time. As such, as long as models generate forecast past 48 or 78 hours, I don't think anything will change.

Have you always been whipped? Lol

Well, like I said, it's different in a big way because it does get snows in the Metros and suburbs. But it's similar in the sense that the heaviest is in an arc around us to the south, se, and east.

It does. It appears to be an extended period of at least light snow for many in the forum and mod/heavy on the Eastern shore and se.

I hate to say it, but as depicted, it sorta reminds me of Boxing Day, but without a total skunk to the central portion of the forum including Metros and suburbs. You'll see what I mean when you see it on TT or Pivotal.

6z AI is turning it into a hybrid Miller B of sorts. It does give snow to the forum with the most east. Eastern shore does best, of course, but it's hard to figure qpf west of the Bay on the Euro site. The 0z gave mby .2" and south of Baltimore .5" with more south and east. This run looks to do a little better, but you'll need to wait for TT to get more exact qpf. Unfortunately, it hooks the meat of the storm around the MA and is now hitting ENE.

Responding to a post in the MA I said: I'm sure you haven't looked at the 6z Nam very closely, but it simply parks the tpv over the Dakotas and appears to be all southern stream. Maybe that's a victory as well, to keep the tpv more or less stationary and let the southern vort pivot counterclockwise around it. Of course, the kicker might just wreck that option in future runs.

I'm sure you haven't looked at the 6z Nam very closely, but it simply parks the tpv over the Dakotas and appears to be all southern stream. Maybe that's a victory as well, to keep the tpv more or less stationary and let the southern vort pivot counterclockwise around it. Of course, the kicker might just wreck that option in future runs.