Surprisingly, when the AI starts precip in the area, this is the 850 map. The 0 line is pretty far north and then creeps north from here 0z 1/23. It's tough to tell, but basically just north of SBY westward near the MD/VA border. So that tells me there's no cold pushing down so northward progress of the storm in future runs would seem a better than 50-50 bet imho.