mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Nam's height lines at 60hrs are way east vs models that show a hit. Cold push is too strong imho.
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If you look at the height lines at 60hrs, it's got the 3rd blue line thru Hagerstown vs models that hit have 1. Cold push is just too strong imho.
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Nam will not show a hit this run because it pushes cold well east of models with a hit.
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It does and there's a link to 850's only below. However, one of the Mets in the MA forum familiar with its verifications said not to rely on them literally fwiw. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202501161800&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501190600
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AI has pushed next week closer too, but still a miss for now.
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Yes, and it looks like a hit on the 28th, but not as perfect as the 12z operational...yet! Lol
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Better yet, we get hit on the 28th, though not as hard as the 12z operational. But give it time! Lol
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While the operational flounders, the AI is turning it into a low end warning event.
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Guess would be .25-.5"
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18z AI appears wetter. Start with this 6 hour panel https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501161800&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501191200
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18z AI appears wetter. Start with this 6 hour panel. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501161800&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501191200
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Euro AI looks wetter. Can't answer about temps. Start with this 6 hour panel. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501161800&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501191200
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Believe it or not.......AI WETTER! Start with this 6 hour panel. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501161800&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501191200
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18z Ukie ensemble meam
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You don't have to be so damned sneaky about it! Lol
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Lt snow here. Had a day of snow with a little less than a half inch. It stopped, then restarted maybe 20 minutes ago.
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18z Eps
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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?
mitchnick replied to mappy's topic in Mid Atlantic
12z Ukie ensembles I just noticed for next week. Pretty decent jump NW fwiw. -
Snowed all day up here with a little less than a half inch. Stopped, then started back up 10 minutes ago and radar upstream surprisingly good for a minor event. Mts are cheating though.
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He'll with the Euro operational. AI all the way baby...until it screws us, of course.
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Sounds a lot like 12z snowfall https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025011612&fh=105&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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Nobody mentioned the 18z Ukie, probably because the 6 and 18z runs only go out 66hrs. Anyway, it was near identical to 12z at 72hrs, except for a touch stronger slp in western NC at 1007mb instead of 1008mb and touch higher heights as a result. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025011618&fh=66&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=prateptype_ukmo-imp&m=ukmo_global
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I haven't even been looking at the lr.
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Probably a blend between Canadians and Gfs, which gives you the Icon, more or less.
