mitchnick

18z Euro faster and weaker

After years of it in school, that's about the only French I remember.

Very much like life in Hanover, PA, but without the loss of many conveniences. But I'm comparing it to life in northern Anne Arundel County, MD, so that obviously has an effect on my point of view. Plus, except for OBX, I have no real love for the water, and that's a big draw for northern AA County peeps.

Latest Srefs snowfall fwiw. Seems reasonable for the Srefs.

Euro operational has cold returning with a vengeance the 26th. Eps? Naso much.

Pivotal not as generous to everyone.

That's Chill's old house.

Be dramatic. This place is boring.

What sux is the lack of a forum wide storm.

Gfs hung on the longest with 4" in the first threat here and finally caved at the end.

Better for us. Instead of being in the 1" area just west of the 1.5" line, we're un the 2" area just shy by feet of the 2.5" line.

That's the Composite Radar off Nam.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=refcmp&rh=2025121012&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 @TSSN+

Looks like the Euro wants to keep a true torch at bay thru at least 300hrs. Don't know beyond that yet.

1pm

Euro just further north as usual

Gefs continue with normal temps with ridge draped across the southern tier being pushed sw.

6z Eps

By the end of the Gefs 18z run (Christmas Day), the ridge across the country has been squashed far enough south to result in normal 850 temps and BN surface temps. Coincidentally, just like the Cansips was showing for the month of January I mentioned earlier today in this thread.

Or insanity

Rgem and Icon have nothing for Friday. Hard to have confidence in anything but flurries without total model support.

We're 2" on Pivotal fwiw. Charlottesville still gets more than that. And you know they will actual get it while ours is iffy. Lol

We get something Sunday, but not too much much to spoil us.

Latest Cfs2 weekly temp forecast. Not bad and looks familiar too. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=us&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2025120900&fh=168

Very similar to the Cansips that keeps cold lurking to our north most of the winter. Here's a link to 2m temps starting in January. Cansips actually likes January for temps over December, thoigh we've built up quite a deficit so far and will maintain most of it before the pattern breaks down. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025120100&fh=0 If you look at 5H anomalies, Cansips wants to have higher heights draped across most areas in the country south of 39-40N. It still gets at or a little BN temps in our area with the WxUSAF slow bleed idea. It's going to be low level, which will likely cause angst (zr/ip) threats, as 850 anomalies are not as favorable. All in all, we should still have decent chances in January if the Cansips is close to being right, and that map above says it may end up right imho.