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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    In the end, imho I think the Canadians are going to end up being more right than wrong and far superior to other guidance when considering how long they've had held their forecasts.
  2. mitchnick
    I'm hoping the Rgem/Gem come in looking like the FV-3.
  3. mitchnick
    FV-3. It's like the Rgem for the Gem, but for the Gfs.
  4. mitchnick
    High Risk said before last Monday's storm that the Hrrr doesn't include new soundings for each run.
  5. mitchnick
    Later start and faster movement.
  6. mitchnick
    Precip looks paultry to me, but we'll see how it ends.
  7. mitchnick
    AI 6z steady as she goes.
  8. mitchnick
    That 4-day period, if true, would beat any consecutive 4-day period in 93/94.
  9. mitchnick
    Imho, I doubt any of us weather weenies who know where to go for weather products will notice.
  10. mitchnick
    Those are the 0z runs. 6z Rgem came north a bit and knocked me down to 4" and 6z GEM cut back on precip for all making it a 4-8" storm vs 8-12". So the inevitable north/last minute waiver has reached them too.
  11. mitchnick
    Ukie ensembles have shifted north a bit from last run putting MDT in the center instead of mby. Canadians were fine by me for days even though being on the southern side. But with them taking the near inevitable north jog it'll be a problem if it continues. Not that they will definitely be right, but all modeling is starting a north shift a bit.
  12. mitchnick
    You've always had his best interests at heart.
  13. mitchnick
    Fyi, 0z AI showed an overrunning type snow event next Monday and then a couple more shots after that, but the later ones ar best north. Can't be stated enough that the AI is all over the place like other modeling in the long run.
  14. mitchnick
    6z Eps shifted south from 0z. Good test to see if the operational and Eps head toward the AI. 6z was the first step toward the AI.
  15. mitchnick
    Honestly, I have yet to watch 1 local forecast since we bought the place in Fall 2019. Too bad for the Mets, but the way of the media world is podcasts, YouTube, TicToc, etc.
  16. mitchnick
    Gfs and Euro closer for Tuesday. But not there yet. AI is a miss but has several hits the following week, better north. Of course, at that range, AI is hit or miss
  17. mitchnick
    UGHHHHHHHH........
  18. mitchnick
    Canadians have reduced snowfall either due to a further north position (Rgem) or less qpf as the 6z GEM is more like 4-8" vs the 8-12" it had yesterday.
  19. mitchnick
    Morning all. Early night for this old man. Georgia? Ummm....I hope that doesn't mean TWC.
  20. mitchnick
    3k is decent but not over the top like the Rgem
  21. mitchnick
    Ncep programmers are trying start local fights among the Mid Atlantic weenies.
  22. mitchnick
    3k is a really good run for all.
  23. mitchnick
    I meant to add that the Hrrr was putting heavy snows over SC PA last Monday, as in 6-9", and that never happened. It's apparently over amped so further adjustments east are likely imho.
  24. mitchnick
    Pretty big, but not unsurprising, shift eastward from 18z.
  25. mitchnick
    TCC comes in with a chart that he contends proves -2 temps now don't feel as cold as -2 temps 30 years ago despite what the thermometer reads.
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