mitchnick

It's a great storm, but even the AI is all over the place past 5 days. We need that to hold.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025011906&fh=282

I'm going to post this off the 6z AI because Bubbler and Bliz haven't told me "I told you so"" enough. Lol Move it forward from that hour. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025011906&fh=282

When there's nothing imminent, I like looking ahead. It would be ashame to not score over the next 2 weeks.

Yeah increasing here. Radar looks great.

Heavy band on its way soon. That should get you too Bubbler https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad

Looks fine imby.

Non-accumulating Light snow

Rn has gone. All snow but flurries. Area of better precip moving north is just to my south and should fix my problem. Lol

12z Hrrr does NOT have 12z soundings per Met in MA forum but they are in the 13z. So we may want to wait until the 13z run before taking it as current.

Great radar right here. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=FCX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad

Pigeon Hills are just to my north and are starting to get noticeably obscured. Need that precip southern edge to keep creeping south.

Radar shows it's snowing pretty good just to my north. And I mean "just."

The Hrrr has never done well imby. I don't why, but it's either too high or too low. That said, 12z puts me at 4-4.5", which is in my 3-5" range. Maybe it'll be right this time.

Lt rn/sn mix

I just realized I have a mix of lt rn and sn with snow increasing. Hmmmm. Early start.

Is it just the cold air that's slower, or is everything including the development of the storm? Because if it's everything, it wouldn't hurt totals as much.

If you go to this link, wait for it to populate info, then it's easy to move around if you're on your phone with 1 finger. Anyway, the cold air has made it to State Collefe and Bradford is in the upper teens. We'll be OK by the time the meaningful precip arrives....I think. Lol https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?obs=true&center=39.82,-79.68&density=1&zoom=7&basemap=OpenStreetMap&boundaries=true,false&obs_popup=true

6z Eps

6z Eps snowfall mean. Best I've seen in years for mby. Lol

Here's a link to the 5H anomalies I referred to in my earlier post fwiw. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202501180000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501270000

That looks great, but the weeklies I follow are at the link below and they aren't great for February after the first week or so. They are run off the 0z Eps from the night before and your run is from 2 nights ago. So it's possible, but I would imagine, very unlikely that 1 day would make a difference especially since the prior run at the link below was warm too. Anyway, here's the link. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202501180000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501270000

Pivotal always more conservative with Kuchera snowfall numbers, hence a better shot at verification.