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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. Right, but a WWB is already organized and will be hitting come early February.
  2. 6z Gfs close to something decent...at 240hrs. Lol
  3. -13 for 2 consecutive hours at York Airport https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KTHV.html
  4. 0z AI is a miss for Monday, light rain for the end of next week, followed by 2 more rain events. Trough goes out west giving us a large ridge in the east. Maybe some light at the end of the tunnel/run with ridging building back over Alaska and Greenland, or it could be transient as it's too early to say if the trough pushes east in response.
  5. Agree. Said over the La Nina thread a few times I believe. And this attachment supports the idea with the westerly wind burst that's actually getting going now, so it's not a pipe dream forecast.
  6. That's one helleva heavy band of snow. https://radar.weather.gov/station/KAKQ/standard
  7. Verbatim, surface temps are between +4 - +8C. You're right, that's not exactly the way I want it.
  8. I agree it has potential, but that's as far as I'll go right now. If this was the kind of season where we were getting hit left and right like 13/14, then I'd be more optimistic. So I'm clear and to avoid some idiotic post by some idiot who can't read, I'm not saying it can't or won't happen, just that I don't see enough to be optimistic at this point.
  9. It's just a temporary relaxation as the cold from Canada does head south, but the pattern doesn't look snowy at the start of February.
  10. Oh it's a better push alright...it pushes it south and precip never makes it north of central VA, and it's rain down there. Monday deal stays south as well. So in short, nothing...as in no snow or rain. Lol
  11. Ensemble snow means are all lousy too. So much for parsing through the weeds finding a pot of gold...more like stepping in dog poop.
  12. Nothing imminent is all you can sensibly say.
  13. Well, it had to wait for the cold to get put of the way you know.
  14. Trapped by High Pressure to the north and nothing to push it along.
  15. 18z Gfs looking interesting at 156hrs, but that sw vort wants to stay put.
  16. Not much faith on this end until we start to at least get some hits on operationals, the AI, or ensemble support.
  17. People are acting like idiots. It's as if they've never seen snow before.
  18. Most boring 12z runs since I don't know when.
  19. 12z AI weakened Monday to lt snow or flurries. Later next week, northern stream fails to appear but heavy rain may turn to snow for some with u/l passage. Again, lots of potential but we could really use some help from up north.
  20. Could be covid. Went around my family with flu symptoms. Feel better soon hopefully.
  21. Obx cams https://www.surfchex.com/cams/nags-head-web-cam-abalone-st/ https://avalonpier.com/piercam/
  22. The troughs over Japan and NE of Hawaii give hope to these weenie eyes.
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