mitchnick

If you go to this link, wait for it to populate info, then it's easy to move around if you're on your phone with 1 finger. Anyway, the cold air has made it to State Collefe and Bradford is in the upper teens. We'll be OK by the time the meaningful precip arrives....I think. Lol https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?obs=true&center=39.82,-79.68&density=1&zoom=7&basemap=OpenStreetMap&boundaries=true,false&obs_popup=true

6z Eps

6z Eps snowfall mean. Best I've seen in years for mby. Lol

Here's a link to the 5H anomalies I referred to in my earlier post fwiw. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202501180000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501270000

That looks great, but the weeklies I follow are at the link below and they aren't great for February after the first week or so. They are run off the 0z Eps from the night before and your run is from 2 nights ago. So it's possible, but I would imagine, very unlikely that 1 day would make a difference especially since the prior run at the link below was warm too. Anyway, here's the link. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202501180000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501270000

Pivotal always more conservative with Kuchera snowfall numbers, hence a better shot at verification.

Shocker! I was afraid to look to be honest. Now let's see if it verifies. I posted before how it seems to always bump numbers imby right before the event starts and it never verifies. Of course, there's still a 12z run to mess with our heads too. Lol

Silver lining, I suppose, is that most Niñas bring back the cold in March, so we may have to wait until late February or early March for a less hostile period. But then we're fighting boundary temps. Not a big problem so much in the hill ares and northern PA, but it is down in the relative lowlands like mby.

It has us in the +1C-3C or 1.8F-5.4F range for 3 weeks, give or take. And it has a ridge around the western, southern, and eastern borders of the Conus. Not pretty if you want snow. Gotta hope it's wrong, but the Euro weeklies have been great with the cold forecasts since mid-Nov. If they maintain their accuracy, be prepared for early spring talk. Lol Iow, we need the next 2 weeks badly or else TCC will be crawling out of his hole I'm sure.

They'll probably wait for 12z to come out, but I expect mine to get shaved some off the top. If we don't find a way to score after today thru the first few days of February, we're in trouble because the February pattern that looks to be coming is hostile to snow...real hostile.

I think we're OK at this point. It comes together pretty fast on modeling.

6z runs, other than Euro as it's pending, maintained that 3-5" idea for the winners as I put it last night in the MA forum. My NWS forecast has held atc3-7" since yesterday and that has a decent chance of verifying, but I doubt any 7" totals and you'll need some luck for 6". Basically a decent, moderate event.

Rgem Kuchera

Seems like a 3-5" storm for the winners.

Nothing on the Euro AI for us next week.

Models always adjust within 12-24 hours of start time, but I can't remember when the adjustment was higher and not lower, and it actually ended at that higher prog.

18z Euro AI remains essentially the same. Wish the operational was as rock steady.

Cold front into western PA. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?obs=true&center=39.4473115,-79.941553&density=1&zoom=7&basemap=OpenStreetMap&boundaries=true,false&obs_popup=true

Never, ever take me seriously. Seriously

Joke, or a reasonable facsimile thereof!

It's the Mid Atlantic forum. Shouldn't this be in Banter?

A p.s. to my post above. Even though Enso 3.4 is not an official Niña, and probably won't be, a Niña background state exists across the N Hemisphere in many respects. We need the Niña background state to bug out fast if we want a shot in February imho. The silver lining is, as I and others have mentioned, there's a good chance we get another shot at cold in March as is typical for Niñas. It's just harder to get cold enough so we have those pesky boundary temp issues.

Euro weeklies, after being off and on about it, have decided to go AN starting right after the start of February right thru until the end. Obviously, the chance that it's correct isn't that high...BUT, unlike prior years, they have been pretty darn good with the duration and extent of the cold since mid-Nov this year. So assuming their accuracy continues, we need to score over the next 2-3 weeks because it will be getting tough after that. That said, the AN range they have us in is between 1-3C, which isn't a blowtorch, but with a ridge painted around the eastern, southern, and western borders of the Conus, it's not conducive to a decent snow pattern. A link to the 5H pattern for those interested is below. It is for "N America." If you change the view to "North Pole," you can see how a stripe of AN heights is painted around almost the entire N Hemisphere. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202501180000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501270000

Cansips has next Friday fwiw.