I'm going to post this off the 6z AI because Bubbler and Bliz haven't told me "I told you so"" enough. Lol
Move it forward from that hour.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025011906&fh=282
12z Hrrr does NOT have 12z soundings per Met in MA forum but they are in the 13z. So we may want to wait until the 13z run before taking it as current.
The Hrrr has never done well imby. I don't why, but it's either too high or too low. That said, 12z puts me at 4-4.5", which is in my 3-5" range. Maybe it'll be right this time.
Is it just the cold air that's slower, or is everything including the development of the storm? Because if it's everything, it wouldn't hurt totals as much.