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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    This is the Eps extended MJO forecast just out at 3pm. The mean is almost dead centered in the COD. Probably best case, but that's, as I said, a mean. If you look at the green dots that represent the end of the forecast, they are all over the place. So not much comfort in what exactly we should expect...except maybe the worse? Lol https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_mjo_family_index?base_time=202501280000
  2. mitchnick
    Gefs MJO forecast ain't great and everything is moving toward it unfortunately. Weeklies yesterday were AN on the Euro site all of February and I'd be surprised if it changed today, which is out any minute.
  3. mitchnick
    Geps is uglier at the end of its run than Gefs.
  4. mitchnick
    12z AI pushes the 6th south some and not as heavy precip. Better for central MD & VA and N VA while surface temps look to cooperate. Moderate event at least in N VA and S and Central MD I think.
  5. mitchnick
    No, he's only 2. But you could get along with him fine I bet.
  6. mitchnick
    Oh yeah, none of my bookmarks or saved passwords transferred.
  7. mitchnick
    Just got back from getting the new phone. Another Samsung because I've always had one and refuse to try to learn an IPhone. That said, I abhore the learning curve for a new phone and getting rid of all the garbage on them. UGHHHHHHHH
  8. mitchnick
    If you only knew how effed up it was. Lol Going ti get new phone now. Back to AI. It’s a wet storm and lots of snow.
  9. mitchnick
    Yes and lots of precip from crummy maps.
  10. mitchnick
    850s start and stay nice thru most of storm. Lot of precip. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202501280600&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502060600
  11. mitchnick
    Ai 6z great. Dropped my phone. Barely made this post
  12. mitchnick
    Ai threatening for 2/6 bigtime. Dropped my phone and need a new one so can't post more. 0z was snow to mix but 6z looks like a lot of snow. More north.
  13. mitchnick
    Chilly
  14. mitchnick
  15. mitchnick
    Maybe sooner at some locations according to the 18z Icon.
  16. mitchnick
    Idk what the EPS will show, but I can't say I have a problem with what was occurring around the Pole and the Pacific at the end of the Euro operational.
  17. mitchnick
    For accumulating snow, it's on life support imho.
  18. mitchnick
    What I don't like about those maps is they do not state the amount of departures from normal, only chances of departure from normal.
  19. mitchnick
    All 0z ensembles have cozied up to the SER and AN temps at the end of their runs. Between climo and the continuing healthy easterly wind burst strengthening the Niña, it is what it is. The easterly wind burst should end around 2/10, so we'll have that and climo hopefully shifting back in our favor sometime after that.
  20. mitchnick
    18z Gefs back to a nasty SER and AN heights and temps at the end of the run.
  21. mitchnick
    No help from the AI at 18z.
  22. mitchnick
    18z Euro says enjoy the rain or drive a long way for snow.
  23. mitchnick
    Posting about weather.
  24. mitchnick
    Update. 12z ukie ensemble snow mean for same period shows an increase, also more than any other 12z ensemble. EDIT: I initially had the wrong map using the total for the run at 174hrs vs 24 hrs ending 174hrs. Fixed it.
  25. mitchnick
    Maybe an improvement on the AI from last run but not enough to make a difference.
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