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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    I see the first. How (bad) does the 2nd look?
  2. mitchnick
    234hrs Gfs is getting ready for an arctic dump into the Conus. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025012012&fh=228&dpdt=&mc=&r=na&p=850th&m=gfs
  3. mitchnick
    Same idea as the AI, but a little wetter and 12hrs later. Close enough.
  4. mitchnick
    We have cold and precip on Monday plus, obviously, it's sooner so less opportunity to fail. I'd really like to see this one juice up in case #2 fails.
  5. mitchnick
    You missed a spot.
  6. mitchnick
    Looks like overrunning because the precip hits an east-west wall of -4C or less 850's.
  7. mitchnick
    @Heisy 6z AI looks to be getting more interested on Monday/Tuesday next week. Still light precip with suppression of heavier stuff. But I think that's not far from a moderate event. 30/31st looks a little warm but may end as snow. This still has big upside potential imho if we get the temps to cooperate as the AI is showing a strong bowling ball vort moving east with redevelopment off the coast. Fingers crossed. EDIT: Big cold dump from Canada at the end of the run.
  8. mitchnick
    I'll check. Ended at 6.5" measuring on the sidewalk but the other poster in Hanover measured 7".
  9. mitchnick
    They do, but we don't get into the meat of the precip. Actually, last night's Gfs runs, as opposed to the Euro, aren't really that different from what the AI is showing, which is a bit surprising to me.
  10. mitchnick
    .35 would have been 20:1, so 18 or 19:1 without doing the math.
  11. mitchnick
    Time sensitive. Check out the swirling streamers up near Buffalo off the lake. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=BUF-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad
  12. mitchnick
    York Airport down to -1 at 4am reading! https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KTHV.html Lol on that one.
  13. mitchnick
    0z AI showing several threats next week (early and late week) but main concern would be suppression due to cold push being stronger. Not worth discussing details.
  14. mitchnick
    DC got 8" or so in the Kennedy storm and reported .3" for this one.
  15. mitchnick
    18z AI has the 1/30-31 threat as rain now. But that can change in 6 hours so nbd.
  16. mitchnick
    18z Euro did pretty well along with the 18z model runs with that heavy stripe. Too bad the Euro comes out after it essentially ends. Lol P.s. this was a post 1pm forecast
  17. mitchnick
    I got 6.5" but measured on the sidewalk in 2 increments, 4.5 and 2. It's fluff so it'll be at 5" before morning if the winds don't blow it away.
  18. mitchnick
    6.5" total I had 4.5" at the first shoveling and was very surprised to see another 2" fell afterwards in those last bands. Looks like another band of lt snow which won't amount to anything. Fingers crossed there's more in our future.
  19. mitchnick
    I did look to see how the 18z models did, other than the Euro, and they all had that same heavy stripe of 4-5" after 1pm that was on the 12z runs.
  20. mitchnick
    New band has formed over me so back to big flakes and decent rates.
  21. mitchnick
    Still accumulating lt snow. Lt snow of some sort should continue for a while. Guess without a 2nd measurement is 6", but it's not over completely.
  22. mitchnick
    Snow is crazy now at the Eagle's game.
  23. mitchnick
    No, I was wondering if it totally shut off after the heavy band. There's light stuff on radar, but I wasn't sure if it was making it together ground.
  24. mitchnick
    Still getting light stuff?
  25. mitchnick
    Pure heavy fluff with the ending main band. Gotta be a couple inches on top of the 4.5". And still coming down.
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