mitchnick

Yes...2 waves. One early on the 5th and another late 6th into 7th.

AI 18z run supports snow on the north side (N&W) of Baltimore this time, but it keeps switching back and forth between N&W and south into Central VA. It does show a very wet storm around the 12 and 13th, but is a little too warm south of the PA line, if even there. Plenty of time to go either way.

18z Gefs likes the period from day 10-14. Top map is total snowfall thru 240hrs and bottom map is 336hrs.

If I said 2/11, JI would have expected a second storm on 2/12.

18z Gfs has the 2/12 storm but a day or so earlier.

Ahh...No! Aldie and I have been posting on these boards for 20+ years and bust each other's chops now and then.

Thanks for the jinx.

Eps with the best snowfall mean of the 12z runs.

Today's Eps weekly MJO mean forecast. Would be nice if the MJO did just this and let our luck rest on something else. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_mjo_family_index?base_time=202501290000

AI has the 2/12 event. Definitely starts as snow probably DC north but likely ends as something else south of PA line, maybe further north from thateven. Again, wait for TT/WxBell. End of the run has a trough in the east.

AI still threatening for the 5th and 6th, though it keeps changing here and there. All I'll say is that it looks like most in the forum gets snow at different times. Probably light to moderate at best. Too hard to parse through 3 separate maps to figure it out. Wait for TT or WxBell.

At 360hrs, it's loading up for another overrunning event, but this is a little warmer to start, but not by much.

It isn't?

About time I get bullseye for an event.

I think the AI has definitely been better 120hrs or less "most" of the time. Beyond 120hrs, they've both been hit or miss. AI was first to show the 2/6 threat, so we'll see how that ultimately goes. It's been getting stronger with the cold pushes around the 6th, so it'll be interesting to see which always it goes in 45 minutes.

Don't be shy. Let's see!

AI isn't out until 2, so we'll wait and see what it shows. The operational ain't what it used to be.

Despite what some may bad about Bamwx, this is a decent explanation of February into March and his ideas on cold returning for the end of February into March match Psu's analogs. Don't judge it on the first page map you see. Lol I really recommend it because he includes some good reasoning too.

Why not? Do you really want an answer to that? Lol

6z AI now has 2/5 in play. One impulse comes thru on the 5th and a second round on the 6th/7th. DC north looks OK at 850 and surface, possibly a bit south of DC. This precip link starts on 2/5 so you can move it forward for precip amounts. Precip amounts on that top link are in 6 hour increments, but bottom is 12 hour for maybe a better idea of totals. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501290600&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502050600 https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501290600&interval=12&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502050600

That's the period the AI has been targeting fwiw.

All I ever had was a Samsung and with my disdain for technology and lack of curiosity of it, I have no desire to figure out where everything is on a different brand. The reason some stuff didn't carry over was because I intentionally do not sync my phone or put stuff in the cloud. It's all on the phone. I refuse to download any apps because they all want access to everything on your phone. Why? They don't need 95% of it. I do banking and retirement stuff on my phone and the fewer people that have access, the less likelihood I get hacked.

Strong Nina trades are killing us.

Canadian operational and ensembles are so warm because the Canadian gets the MJO wave the strongest into the Martime (warm for the east coast) phases. Gefs is not as bad as the Geps and EPS is best in that it kills the MJO wave. If the Canadian is right, we could see those temps. But I've been in the Enso thread of the main forum for almost 2 years duking it out with the warmanistas, and I can tell you that nobody relies on the Canadian MJO forecasts as they are usually somewhere between not good and bad. Here's a link to all the MJO RMM forecasts if interested. http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html