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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    Funny how the 18z Gefs snowfall is heaviest in central VA. I'll take that as a good sign at this range.
  2. mitchnick
    You mean spins and dies. That's not the kind of wave Snowman was talking about.
  3. mitchnick
    It's not cutting because it's weaker by leaving energy behind was my attempted point.
  4. mitchnick
    Looks great at 252hrs
  5. mitchnick
    Gfs leaving energy behind. It's coming out weaker so less likely to cut I think.
  6. mitchnick
    Soooo hard to make things work. Northern stream has a vort to either rescue it or push it ots.
  7. mitchnick
    Gem had something sorta similar on 12z run https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025012218&fh=156&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  8. mitchnick
    Latest Gefs extended gets the wave in Phase 8 by February 20th. That's a good Phase with a trough in the east. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/gmon.shtml
  9. mitchnick
    Fwiw, Gefs latest Extended puts a weak MJO wave into Phase 8 by February 20th. That's an excellent phase for us in a Niña with a trough in the east. Coincidentally, it matches approximately the period Psu highlighted for a return to cold per analogs. See how simple this is? Lol https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/gmon.shtml
  10. mitchnick
    Western Atlantic Ridge Warms us up
  11. mitchnick
    Nah, follow up is rain too. Not so sure I buy the warm scenarios yet.
  12. mitchnick
    There's a follow up storm that might work. Driving so can't say for sure.
  13. mitchnick
    AI wayyyy west and warm. Worse than any operational.
  14. mitchnick
    Ukie stronger
  15. mitchnick
    Ukie gone wild on the northern stream day 7.
  16. mitchnick
    Snow on the beach at OBX. Other cams further down the page. https://www.surfchex.com/cams/surf-city-pier-north/
  17. mitchnick
    Nice cam here of snow on the beach and the sky. https://www.surfchex.com/cams/surf-city-pier-north/
  18. mitchnick
    Still snowing at Hatteras. Bunch more cams down below at this link. https://www.surfchex.com/cams/hatteras-web-cam/
  19. mitchnick
    Gfs came close at the end, but that reminds me of 93/94. Just need it south by another 75-100 miles.
  20. mitchnick
    Nice setup at the end of the Gfs. May or may not hit, but it can often work.
  21. mitchnick
    Makes sense that there would be a grand finale at the end of the cold pattern as it has happened often over the years. Now all we can do is hope that we're in the bullseye if it does happen.
  22. mitchnick
    6z AI Precip. Move forward from here. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501220600&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502010600 850's move forward from here https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202501220600&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502010600
  23. mitchnick
    Crazy mind think alike. Lol
  24. mitchnick
    @Heisy and those interested If 850 temps cooperated, it looks like a full blown Blizzard on the AI for the 31st-1st. The u/l is so strong it kills 850's for part of the storm, but surface look marginal but OK. Obviously, can't take temps verbatim and the crummy mapscmay be overdoing the 850 warming.
  25. mitchnick
    Thought likewise.
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