mitchnick

Might be firing up too. https://charts.ecmwf.int/permalinks/experimental:-aifs-(ecmwf)-ml-model:-rain-and-mean-sea-level-pressure-3283

E mm d of the AI run ain't so bad with Canada Not cold per se, but I started writing a post that Canada is flooded with surface cold air and a front has just come through. There is still a trough in the SW and a flattened SE Ridge. Here's the 500mb/850 temp map on top and surface temps below. https://charts.ecmwf.int/permalinks/experimental:-aifs-(ecmwf)-ml-model:-500-hpa-geopotential-height-and-850-hpa-temperature-591 https://charts.ecmwf.int/permalinks/experimental:-aifs-(ecmwf)-ml-model:-2-m-temperature-and-10-m-wind-58318 If you change the 850 temp map to North Pole from NA, you can see that most of the cold at 850 is on our side of the Pole.

12z AI ain't budging.

Hang up the phone and call an Uber!

I posted yesterday that the Gefs extended had the wave into 8 by 2/20, but has updated today and has delayed that. No other progs get it to, or close to, 8 but the Gefs extended. So we need to root for it and to speed up. Otoh, we could always cobble something together that is neither reliant on nor wrecked by the MJO, providing it's a weak wave. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/gmon.shtml

7 ain't so hot in February during a Nina. La Nada not much better. We need 8.

Did you really expect it to hold? Runs like that at 10 days never do. In fact, runs like that at any range hardly ever hold.

Don't disagree. I thought I was pretty equivocall by calling it a legitimate "possibility." Certainly believe we need a couple of days, but clearly the SE ridge looks to be a threat now whereas it wasn't so much before. So we wait and hope for a step back.

I'm thinking the operational models are coming to think the SE ridge is going to be stronger in our future than previously advertised. We'll have to wait to see how the ensembles look before we can reach that conclusion. But the AI possibly leading the way isn't comforting. 1 or 2 runs like that with operational modeling disagreeing can be disregarded, but 3 runs now I believe and operationals jumping on board brings a lot of legitimacy to the possibility imho.

AI again. Double ughhh

Ughh. North is the AI.

Unless our confluence holds, and I'll be surprised if it does, we're sunk.

12z Icon at 180hrs isn't bad with the storm moving east. Not real cold but High pressure in Canada is building and heading SE. Timing is key again.

Sure there was. They don't count late starts against minimum school days, so no need for makeups or virtual class.

Did they change the name to High Point the day after you graduated?

But of course.

2/11 was big...I think it was the 11th, but could be wrong.

6z AI no better than 0z for late January/early February.

Modeling overnight, including the 6z Euro and Eps, have strengthened the cold push at day 6+. If the southern vort came up earlier on recent modeling, it would stay south in all likelihood. So it's not necessarily a bad thing it's being delayed. Bottom line is that it is soooo difficult to get the perfect timing needed for a decent event as depicted on the 0z. All we can hope for now is that the Euro AI is not right at this range because there's no chance for anyone east of the Mississippi if it is.

They used their first and index fingers. How dare you! I wonder how many kids got injured trying that. Lol

A thumb in the eye of those who would have laughed at anyone who would have predicted such a week at the start of winter.

Bliz, I'll save you the effort on the Euro 0z. It's la-la land and one of many possibilities, but this is what one of the best possibility looks like.

0z Gem was set up for a hit of some kind at the end of its run, which is around the target time frame right after the end of January.

At this range, the AI is at best another ensemble member. No big deal.

Let us know how bad we lose. Lol